Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: The money eraser
Inflation can often seem an abstract concept. Not lately, though: everyone is keenly aware of soaring prices. Is inflation finally starting to drop?
Read time: 8 mins
Review of the week: Expectations vs reality
There’s a disconnect between how everyone feels and how stock markets are moving. Meanwhile, the US debt ceiling looms ever larger.
Read time: 8 mins
Review of the week: A very British coronation
A King is crowned and most of England went to the polls last week. Coming up is a Bank of England rate hike and an update for American inflation.
Read time: 7 mins
Review of the week: Banking eagle, hawked
A regional bank caught up in the March banking crisis has been forcibly sold by an American regulator. Hopefully this marks the end of the chapter.
Read time: 9 mins
Review of the week: Markets on edge as earnings season picks up pace
Investors are fearful of an earnings recession as reporting season steams ahead. Meanwhile, China’s first-quarter GDP estimate suggests its recovery is proving uneven.
Read time: 7 mins
Review of the week: The cost of drama
Markets are riven over weighty questions about the economic strength of our households and businesses clashing with higher living costs, and all the while lurks the menace of unknown consequences created by a rapidly changed world.
Read time: 8 mins
Review of the week: The world has changed
Money was easy to come by in the 2010s, for businesses, households and governments. With interest rates now much higher, hard decisions loom.
Read time: 7 mins
Review of the week: Back on track?
Stocks and bonds ended the month – and first quarter –nearing the top ends of the trading ranges in place since late last year. But there’s still much uncertainty about the inflation and growth outlook, particularly if energy prices start rising again.
Read time: 6 mins
Review of the week: The fear bug strikes again
Strong gains for Europe’s banks last week were reversed by Friday’s close. With the fear bug spreading, can we be confident it won’t strike again?
Read time: 7 mins
Review of the week: Poof, like magic
Banks are very powerful, but very fragile. That’s because they are dependent on people and their ability to believe.
Read time: 9 mins
Review of the week: Move fast and break
When banks fail they do so suddenly and the shock can create panic that spreads trouble to other lenders. That’s why US regulators have stepped in swiftly and unambiguously.
Read time: 9 mins
Review of the week: The bank of mum and dad
UK central bankers fall into an age-old parenting trap while talking to investors. Also, we look at the differences between official statistics and new ‘real-time’ series.
Read time: 9 mins
Recovery rolls on, belying rocky times
Earnings are booming in the West as the recovery rolls on despite investor nervousness.
Read time: 4 mins
Full of surprises
Recent inflation headlines have made for uncomfortable reading, and volatility picked up as investors remained sceptical of policymakers’ messaging. But we don’t think rising inflation is here to stay as there are too many other phenomena that will push it down.
Read time: 4 mins
America blooms
America is opening up along with the spring blossoms, and a strong summer of spending seems to be on the way. The rebound in fortunes has helped the S&P 500 reach new highs which, as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, go hand in hand with rising yields.
Read time: 4 mins
Springing yields
Bond yields and a new season’s flowers both sprung up last month, heralding an end to the dark days of lockdown winter. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth ponders the big question on investors’ minds – does this also foreshadow a prolonged period of higher inflation?
Read time: 3 mins
A bleary-eyed awakening
After a busy start to the year there’s still a lot of uncertainty swirling around in markets. But economies tend to bounce back hard after sombre periods, and hope remains that our eventual return to ‘normal’ will be no different.
Read time: 3 mins
Optimistic realism in a vaccinated recovery
A roller-coaster of a year finished on a high note for the markets, and we start 2021 with a sense of relief that one of the most difficult years many of us have ever experienced is behind us.
Read time: 4 mins
Staying balanced
With a clutch of vaccines on the way soon, equity markets were in a buoyant mood in November. But there are still a lot of things we don’t know – and even some things we don’t know that we don’t know…
Read time: 3 mins
America (finally) decides
Equities fell in October as investors came to terms with tighter lockdown restrictions, but hopes for a new round of US stimulus under President-elect Joe Biden have buoyed markets, and Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth reckons we should take heart.
Read time: 3 mins
Post holiday blues
With summer fading into memory, a long uncertain winter of social distancing lies ahead. It’s easy to feel gloomy, but as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth argues, we should try not to buy into the doom.
Read time: 4 mins
A patchy summer
As summer winds down and the pandemic persists, governments are finding it hard to taper their support measures.
Read time: 4 mins
Managing expectations
The hard data is coming in and so far companies have fared better through the pandemic than expected. Just how long complete recovery will take no one knows, but as chief economist Julian Chillingworth notes, we maintain our long-held belief in the human capacity to co-operate and solve problems.
Read time: 3 mins
Are the bears in hibernation, or just napping?
With the groundwork laid for a rapid recovery, equity markets reflected continued optimism in June. But as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, significant risks remain.
Read time: 3 mins
