Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: Middle-Eastern tensions rise further
An Iranian missile attack on Israel was thwarted over the weekend. While markets are calm, risks of escalation linger.
6 mins
Review of the week: Is the door slamming on early rate cuts?
A blowout jobs report is tipping bets towards fewer US interest rate cuts this year. What happens if inflation continues to bounce higher this week?
4 mins
Review of the week: This rally is broadening...
A resilient economy is giving investors increased confidence to move beyond the Magnificent Seven and into corners of the market that have lagged. This broadening trend is very encouraging.
4 mins
Review of the week: Downward bound
After the flurry of central bank decisions last week, what did we learn about when (and how much) the big hitters plan to cut rates?
5 mins
Review of the week: Land of the rising prices
In a wave of central bank meetings this week, one of them is truly different. While all other developed world policymakers are pondering rate cuts, only Japan is considering rate hikes.
5 mins
Review of the week: Hazy data
Problems with UK labour surveys are making it hard to know the true rate of unemployment. Meanwhile, the Chancellor releases a tax-cutting Budget that leaves the next government with tough choices.
5 mins
Review of the week: Tax cuts or a conservative Budget?
The Chancellor hopes to narrow Labour’s yawning lead in opinion polls with a tax-cutting Budget. Giveaways may be stymied by a poor economy and higher costs of public services.
6 mins
Review of the week: Planning to fail
Obstructive planning laws are curtailing the supply of homes in the UK, the regulator says. Meanwhile, the quality of building is slipping, suggesting we’re wrapped up in the wrong red tape.
4 mins
Review of the week: Downcast, but out (spending)
The UK slumps into recession even as people’s spirits and retail sales rise. Meanwhile, trouble may be brewing in American inflation.
5 mins
Review of the week: American stocks pop
The US S&P 500 stock market index broke through 5,000 for the first time, hitting a record high last week as investors shrugged off worries that interest rates may not fall as fast as many had hoped.
6 mins
Review of the week: Don’t tread on me
US jobs strength pushes back interest rate cut forecasts yet further. Meanwhile, higher rates and changing business needs keeps squeezing commercial property.
8 mins
Review of the week: The oracle of Threadneedle Street
No change to monetary policy is expected this week, but investors will be eager for any clue about the Bank of England’s thoughts on inflation and interest rate cuts.
6 mins
In context
Investors seem to be flitting between fear and optimism in an increasingly erratic manner. Hopes for a soft-touch Federal Reserve seem to be driving most of the optimism, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
4 mins
A Gordian knot
Markets took a dive in December, but we think panicked investors may have got ahead of themselves. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth explains why things are relatively ok for global growth, but perhaps not so much for the UK
4 mins
Hunting the red October
October was a brutal month for investors, with a simultaneous rise in bond yields and sharp correction in equity markets. In English, this means the value of both bonds and stocks headed the same way: down
4 mins
Hope emerging
Emerging markets recovered sharply last week after a hefty rate hike by the Turkish central bank and a more modest – but still applauded – one by the Russian monetary authority
5 mins
Summer days
It’s been a hot and sleepy summer punctuated by a few small scares, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth. With a bit of luck, the trade-related worries should fade away over the rest of the year.
3 mins
Will he? Won’t he?
The government has got itself in another tangle over Brexit. Meanwhile, chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth investigates the strange dichotomy that’s driving an ascendant dollar.
5 mins
Homo economicus
We all know £2.99 is a bargain and £3.00 is a scandal. Whoever first realised the incredible value hidden in that one pence made a lot of money on our irrationality. Brokers are now probably making that much money again with investors trading feverishly as the 10-year US Treasury broke the 3.00% milestone for the first time in a bit over four years.
5 mins
Tariff tangle
Trade threats and tech troubles have made investors nervous, but economies around the world remain healthy and relatively vibrant. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, says markets are likely to remain rocky, but that should provide opportunities
4 mins
Volatility revisited
After a rocky start markets have since settled, but possibly not for long. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, looks ahead.
4 mins
Second-guessing
Inflation fears roiled markets in early February after a record stretch of stock market calm. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, looks ahead.
5 mins
A miserable miracle
This has been one of the most begrudged share market rallies in modern times. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, explains why political deadlock may help it continue.
5 mins