Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: An economic rerun of the 1970s?
The 1970s suddenly seem relevant again given soaring oil prices, high inflation and rising interest rates. But we’re not expecting a rerun of 1970s-style spiralling prices, sputtering economic growth and weak equity market returns.
6 mins
Review of the week: Bourses bounce back
This year has been grim so far, yet equities recovered much of their losses last week. Meanwhile, oil prices are all over the place and COVID-19 is wreaking havoc in the East.
7 mins
Review of the week: Changing point
Commodity markets are fuelling further inflation and putting global growth at risk. Central banks have shown they want to unwind years of emergency monetary policy regardless, sending bond yields higher.
7 mins
Review of the week: The tie that binds
The war in Ukraine has united typically quarrelsome European states against Russian aggression. Meanwhile, unity in President Vladimir Putin’s nation has been enforced through the strength of an authoritarian regime.
7 mins
Review of the week: Defiance
Russia’s invasion at first wrong-footed both Ukraine and the West, but the defenders’ resolve has been tougher than expected. Now, financial sanctions are hitting Russians hard.
8 mins
Review of the week: Back to the shops
UK retail sales bounced back after a COVID-crushed Christmas. Yet the longest income squeeze since Sir Robert Peel was Prime Minister is set to intensify in the coming months.
6 mins
Review of the week: War looms
Talks to ward off conflict over Ukraine are failing and a Russian invasion is reportedly imminent. Is it brinkmanship or a real risk?
5 mins
Review of the week: Bank on a tough year
The Bank of England seems poised to raise interest rates aggressively to combat inflation, yet its explanations don’t square with its own forecasts and analysis. Expect fewer hikes than the market currently implies.
7 mins
Review of the week: Tighter money
The years of loose money are coming to an end. That will cause some short-term upheaval in markets, but if economies remain strong stocks should soon bounce back.
7 mins
Review of the week: Getting ahead of the Fed
Bond yields have been climbing almost as much as investors’ worry levels. Pausing to remind ourselves what central bankers are trying to achieve – and how stocks typically react – is helpful.
6 mins
Review of the week: Just like the old days
With COVID cases starting to roll over – in the UK at least – and investors settling down for some old-fashioned Fed watching, everyone is hoping 2022 will be a bit more like pre-pandemic times.
6 mins
Review of the week: A strange and profitable year
Another COVID-blighted year has passed. Yet, for all the turmoil, 2021 was a great one for markets.
5 mins
Less signalling – more manoeuvring, please
Capitalism is one of the most powerful forces in society’s arsenal, argues head of multi-asset investments David Coombs. It has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty over the past 200 years. Time for phase two.
4 mins
A bleary-eyed awakening
After a busy start to the year there’s still a lot of uncertainty swirling around in markets. But economies tend to bounce back hard after sombre periods, and hope remains that our eventual return to ‘normal’ will be no different.
3 mins
Eating for two?
We’re all craving the end of lockdown and a bit of freedom. But Craig Brown, our multi-asset investment specialist, wonders just how many of us will be in the position to spend up large.
2 mins
Fun and GameStop in the bedroom
It looks like we’ll all be staying in this Valentine’s Day. But multi-asset fund manager Will McIntosh-Whyte is looking forward to some quality time away from the screens.
4 mins
China: will it be a bullish Year of the Ox?
As China celebrates the Year of the Ox, our head of asset allocation research Edward Smith considers the health of the world’s second-largest economy – and the resulting implications for global trade and financial markets.
5 mins
Will the dollar lose its perch?
As you may have seen in your clients’ portfolios, the US dollar has been tottering a little lately. Head of asset allocation research, Ed Smith, asks if this is a short-term wobble or whether the dollar may lose its perch after decades of dominance?
4 mins
Recovery’s winners and losers
As investors look ahead to a time when the pandemic will be over, Ed Smith and Sanjiv Tumkur, our respective heads of asset allocation and equity research, question whether equity markets are in the midst of a great rotation from ‘growth’ to ‘value’.
4 mins
Bitcoin: bearer bonds for the 21st century
A lockdown-induced Christmas TV binge didn’t extend quite as far the Wizard of Oz for our head of multi-asset investments, David Coombs. But “the Great and Terrible” did come up in a conversation about bitcoin.
5 mins
2021: the year ahead. Maybe?
Well, 2020 didn’t go the way we all expected. Our head of multi-asset investments, David Coombs, has tossed out his old fortune-telling teacup and reached for the magic 8-ball this year.
2 mins
A ‘brand’ new world
Head of equity research, Sanjiv Tumkur, considers how a new generation of consumers are leading long-established brands - the bedrock of portfolios around the world - to adapt a more sustainable approach and help shape a ‘brand’ new world.
3 mins
Spread your wings and fly away
With vaccines in the offing, many investors argue that inflation is just around the corner. Fill your boots with airlines, they say. Yet our head of multi-asset investments David Coombs has had his head in the 1970s lately, and it’s helped him spot a flaw in the plan.
4 mins
MiFID II and the implications for ESG investing
In June 2020, rating agency Morningstar reported that global investments in environmental, social and governance (ESG) funds had reached a record high of $1.06 trillion, with capital inflows into sustainable funds up 72% in the second quarter alone.
4 mins