Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: Inflation persists
The price level is yet to find a ceiling, so the value of stocks and bonds have no floor. Markets will swing between hope and despair until inflation is inarguably falling.
6 mins
Review of the week: Is hot wage growth cooling?
Financial markets remain volatile as they try to gauge whether the healthy jobs market could stoke too-high inflation. Meanwhile, tensions between Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his party are escalating sharply.
5 mins
Review of the week: So bearish, it’s bullish
Ever been so happy it makes you sad? Ever been so distraught it makes you smile? Humanity is complicated, which makes markets tough to read as well.
5 mins
Review of the week: Outline of a bear market
Stocks are flirting with levels that delineate a depressed market. The mood is gloomy and the risk of recession is real, but are investors pricing in too much bad news?
7 mins
Review of the week: The balancing act is back
Central bankers have spent years focussing their efforts on fighting deflation. Now that long-dormant inflation is back, they have to stop it from bedding in while avoiding sending the economy into recession.
6 mins
Review of the week: The dollar ascendant
US monetary policy is tightening, sending the greenback higher. This should ease US inflation even as it squeezes the costs of living and doing business for foreign markets.
6 mins
Review of the week: Behind the times
Central banks, squarely behind the curve, are preparing to raise rates swiftly. Inflation should be peaking, yet a European oil embargo is becoming more likely.
8 mins
Review of the week: The money squeeze
People are starting to react to increases in the cost of living, cutting non-essentials and spending less. Central banks are soon to follow suit by increasing interest rates further.
5 mins
Review of the week: A muddled view
The war in Ukraine has dampened global growth as waves of COVID-19 continue to roll across the world. Meanwhile, politics is back to the fore in Europe and America.
8 mins
Review of the week: Tipping the scales
Western central banks are trying to rebalance the scales in bond markets without causing a panic. Meanwhile, COVID-19 and bog-standard politics are still influencing markets in Europe and Asia.
8 mins
Review of the week: A pinch and a punch
Cost of living fears seem to be peaking in the UK as a raft of important protections end. How will the economy hold up as households and companies tighten their belts?
5 mins
Review of the week: An economic rerun of the 1970s?
The 1970s suddenly seem relevant again given soaring oil prices, high inflation and rising interest rates. But we’re not expecting a rerun of 1970s-style spiralling prices, sputtering economic growth and weak equity market returns.
6 mins
How technology can improve air quality
When people think about sustainable investing, they often focus on just the narrow topic of how a company itself operates in an environmentally friendly manner. But sustainability is about more than a business’s immediate environmental impact. David Harrison explores the pivotal role tech is playing during the pandemic.
4 mins
Curve goes down, curve goes up
A flattening COVID-19 infection curve is steepening bond yield curves. Head of fixed income Bryn Jones wrestles with the outlook for inflation and the chances of another flare-up of COVID-19.
3 mins
Safety first
The UK is facing a triple crisis: a pandemic, poor leadership and crippling risk aversion that’s spreading throughout everyday life. Multi-asset portfolio funds lead manager David Coombs argues that we are pushing risk into the future.
4 mins
The horror of anomalies
Some companies are starting to let wishful thinking take over their reporting. Head of fixed income Bryn Jones takes a dim view of EBITDAC.
3 mins
Lego Man helps himself
After one month of lockdown, multi-asset investment specialist Craig Brown’s hair was unkempt. After two months, it was totally out of control. It’s time for self-help.
4 mins
Have a little faith
Bad news is feeding many pessimists at the moment. Head of fixed income Bryn Jones sees a different, more optimistic, picture – and he’s investing in it.
3 mins
Maradona monetary policy is over
Lack of live football has our head of fixed income, Bryn Jones, looking back over past classics. That got him thinking about an old theory of monetary policy that may now be outmoded.
4 mins
Responsible recession
With the world in lockdown and experiencing the worst recession in living memory Matt Crossman, our stewardship director, ponders whether the recent trend toward ESG was a luxury afforded by the longest bull market in living memory.
3 mins
Fallen angels
‘Fallen angels’ of the bond world are getting a better reception than the disgraced seraphim in Paradise Lost. Pondering the power of the Fed, our head of fixed income Bryn Jones is reminded of John Milton’s epic poem.
4 mins
Sofa, self-isolation and … S&P 500 put options
Instead of reclining poolside on a June holiday abroad, our multi-asset investment specialist Craig Brown is resigned to a staycation. But there will no doubt be plenty of work to keep him and the multi-asset team very busy this year.
4 mins
A dog’s not just for lockdown
Credit markets have been a crazy place for the past couple of months. But our head of fixed income, Bryn Jones, has got a new friend to keep him (halfway) sane.
3 mins
Uncharted territory
During times of crisis, the way companies respond can have a major impact on society as a whole, not just their balance sheets. Rathbone Global Sustainability Fund manager David Harrison discusses why he believes companies with strong sustainability principles have a greater potential to weather the pandemic.
3 mins