Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: The cost of drama
Markets are riven over weighty questions about the economic strength of our households and businesses clashing with higher living costs, and all the while lurks the menace of unknown consequences created by a rapidly changed world.
8 mins
Review of the week: The world has changed
Money was easy to come by in the 2010s, for businesses, households and governments. With interest rates now much higher, hard decisions loom.
7 mins
Review of the week: Back on track?
Stocks and bonds ended the month – and first quarter –nearing the top ends of the trading ranges in place since late last year. But there’s still much uncertainty about the inflation and growth outlook, particularly if energy prices start rising again.
6 mins
Review of the week: The fear bug strikes again
Strong gains for Europe’s banks last week were reversed by Friday’s close. With the fear bug spreading, can we be confident it won’t strike again?
7 mins
Review of the week: Poof, like magic
Banks are very powerful, but very fragile. That’s because they are dependent on people and their ability to believe.
9 mins
Review of the week: Move fast and break
When banks fail they do so suddenly and the shock can create panic that spreads trouble to other lenders. That’s why US regulators have stepped in swiftly and unambiguously.
9 mins
Review of the week: The bank of mum and dad
UK central bankers fall into an age-old parenting trap while talking to investors. Also, we look at the differences between official statistics and new ‘real-time’ series.
9 mins
Review of the week: A way forward?
A new deal for the Northern Irish border is imminent, bringing hope of greater clarity on Brexit for the UK. Meanwhile, the outlook for global inflation only gets foggier.
8 mins
Review of the week: One year on
The war in Ukraine has caused misery in Eastern Europe, upended global trade and sharpened world politics. An era of cheap hydrocarbons is now behind us, and further energy shocks could be on the horizon.
7 mins
Review of the week: The uncertainty principle
After years of upheaval, huge stimulus and changing habits from work to play, the paths of economic growth and inflation disappear into a fog as thick as a February morning. That’s why we’re still cautious about 2023.
8 mins
Review of the week: Blowing a gale
Markets were fanned higher by US monetary policy before getting driven backwards by contradictory economic winds. Uncertainty still reigns supreme.
7 mins
Review of the week: Everything, everywhere, all at once
It’s a manic week ahead, full of monetary policy, earnings and economic insights. Just the right time for a week of strikes to cause bedlam throughout the UK, from schools to railways.
7 mins
Less signalling – more manoeuvring, please
Capitalism is one of the most powerful forces in society’s arsenal, argues head of multi-asset investments David Coombs. It has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty over the past 200 years. Time for phase two.
4 mins
A bleary-eyed awakening
After a busy start to the year there’s still a lot of uncertainty swirling around in markets. But economies tend to bounce back hard after sombre periods, and hope remains that our eventual return to ‘normal’ will be no different.
3 mins
Eating for two?
We’re all craving the end of lockdown and a bit of freedom. But Craig Brown, our multi-asset investment specialist, wonders just how many of us will be in the position to spend up large.
2 mins
Fun and GameStop in the bedroom
It looks like we’ll all be staying in this Valentine’s Day. But multi-asset fund manager Will McIntosh-Whyte is looking forward to some quality time away from the screens.
4 mins
China: will it be a bullish Year of the Ox?
As China celebrates the Year of the Ox, our head of asset allocation research Edward Smith considers the health of the world’s second-largest economy – and the resulting implications for global trade and financial markets.
5 mins
Will the dollar lose its perch?
As you may have seen in your clients’ portfolios, the US dollar has been tottering a little lately. Head of asset allocation research, Ed Smith, asks if this is a short-term wobble or whether the dollar may lose its perch after decades of dominance?
4 mins
Recovery’s winners and losers
As investors look ahead to a time when the pandemic will be over, Ed Smith and Sanjiv Tumkur, our respective heads of asset allocation and equity research, question whether equity markets are in the midst of a great rotation from ‘growth’ to ‘value’.
4 mins
Bitcoin: bearer bonds for the 21st century
A lockdown-induced Christmas TV binge didn’t extend quite as far the Wizard of Oz for our head of multi-asset investments, David Coombs. But “the Great and Terrible” did come up in a conversation about bitcoin.
5 mins
2021: the year ahead. Maybe?
Well, 2020 didn’t go the way we all expected. Our head of multi-asset investments, David Coombs, has tossed out his old fortune-telling teacup and reached for the magic 8-ball this year.
2 mins
A ‘brand’ new world
Head of equity research, Sanjiv Tumkur, considers how a new generation of consumers are leading long-established brands - the bedrock of portfolios around the world - to adapt a more sustainable approach and help shape a ‘brand’ new world.
3 mins
Spread your wings and fly away
With vaccines in the offing, many investors argue that inflation is just around the corner. Fill your boots with airlines, they say. Yet our head of multi-asset investments David Coombs has had his head in the 1970s lately, and it’s helped him spot a flaw in the plan.
4 mins
MiFID II and the implications for ESG investing
In June 2020, rating agency Morningstar reported that global investments in environmental, social and governance (ESG) funds had reached a record high of $1.06 trillion, with capital inflows into sustainable funds up 72% in the second quarter alone.
4 mins