Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: A Lot Going On
There’s a veritable sea of moving parts out there in the global economy, which are keeping investors on edge. The big question is, how will they influence central bankers?
5 mins
Review of the week: Same World, Different Views
The US House of Representatives is struggling to agree on a new Speaker as the US ticks toward a shutdown of government. Strangely, stocks seem more perturbed by strong economic growth.
7 mins
Review of the week: A Cloudy Outlook
Big banks are reporting strong profits so far this quarter, but how will the rest of the market fare? And is higher-than-usual inflation making people glum?
6 mins
Review of the week: The Israeli-Hamas Conflict
This week has seen harrowing atrocities committed by the terrorist group Hamas against Israeli civilians. With so far more than 1,200 people reported to have been killed, this is the most serious cross-border attack Israel has faced in decades.
4 mins
Review of the week: Uncertainty spreads
Central bankers in the US and UK decided interest rates shouldn’t go higher in September; bond investors disagreed.
6 mins
Review of the week: Will interest rates plateau after peaking?
Will the big central banks making significant interest rate announcements this week follow the ECB’s lead and signal that rates have now peaked? And where might rates settle longer term?
6 mins
Review of the week: The good oil
Like virtually everything else, the cost of energy is much higher than it used to be. Combined with higher interest rates, it should keep squeezing economic growth in the coming months.
8 mins
Review of the week: Not the August planned
Hopes for a quiet summer were dashed by difficult-to-read economic data, swinging bond yields and holiday dramas.
5 mins
Review of the week: Soft landing?
Rather than a slow fade, the American economy produced a surprise surge. Yet with inflation within touching distance of the 2% target, US interest rates may still peak soon.
10 mins
Review of the week: Higher or Lower
Interest rate hikes for the US and Europe are almost certain this week. All major central banks are getting close to calling time on rate increases, but the UK is likely to be the last to do so.
9 mins
Review of the week: Running hot and cold
Inflation is falling nicely in the US, will British CPI follow suit this week? Meanwhile, China battles deflation as its economy stutters.
7 mins
Review of the week: Interesting times for bonds
Normally staid bond markets seem highly strung lately, but there are reasons to hope for some loosening up
5 mins
How technology can improve air quality
When people think about sustainable investing, they often focus on just the narrow topic of how a company itself operates in an environmentally friendly manner. But sustainability is about more than a business’s immediate environmental impact. David Harrison explores the pivotal role tech is playing during the pandemic.
4 mins
Curve goes down, curve goes up
A flattening COVID-19 infection curve is steepening bond yield curves. Head of fixed income Bryn Jones wrestles with the outlook for inflation and the chances of another flare-up of COVID-19.
3 mins
Safety first
The UK is facing a triple crisis: a pandemic, poor leadership and crippling risk aversion that’s spreading throughout everyday life. Multi-asset portfolio funds lead manager David Coombs argues that we are pushing risk into the future.
4 mins
The horror of anomalies
Some companies are starting to let wishful thinking take over their reporting. Head of fixed income Bryn Jones takes a dim view of EBITDAC.
3 mins
Lego Man helps himself
After one month of lockdown, multi-asset investment specialist Craig Brown’s hair was unkempt. After two months, it was totally out of control. It’s time for self-help.
4 mins
Have a little faith
Bad news is feeding many pessimists at the moment. Head of fixed income Bryn Jones sees a different, more optimistic, picture – and he’s investing in it.
3 mins
Maradona monetary policy is over
Lack of live football has our head of fixed income, Bryn Jones, looking back over past classics. That got him thinking about an old theory of monetary policy that may now be outmoded.
4 mins
Responsible recession
With the world in lockdown and experiencing the worst recession in living memory Matt Crossman, our stewardship director, ponders whether the recent trend toward ESG was a luxury afforded by the longest bull market in living memory.
3 mins
Fallen angels
‘Fallen angels’ of the bond world are getting a better reception than the disgraced seraphim in Paradise Lost. Pondering the power of the Fed, our head of fixed income Bryn Jones is reminded of John Milton’s epic poem.
4 mins
Sofa, self-isolation and … S&P 500 put options
Instead of reclining poolside on a June holiday abroad, our multi-asset investment specialist Craig Brown is resigned to a staycation. But there will no doubt be plenty of work to keep him and the multi-asset team very busy this year.
4 mins
A dog’s not just for lockdown
Credit markets have been a crazy place for the past couple of months. But our head of fixed income, Bryn Jones, has got a new friend to keep him (halfway) sane.
3 mins
Uncharted territory
During times of crisis, the way companies respond can have a major impact on society as a whole, not just their balance sheets. Rathbone Global Sustainability Fund manager David Harrison discusses why he believes companies with strong sustainability principles have a greater potential to weather the pandemic.
3 mins