Knowledge and insight

Copper is all around us: in our houses, our cars, our hairdryers and it’s even one of the most intensively used raw materials in the green energy revolution. Its wide use in everyday products should make copper prices a good indicator of economic health. But there are other factors at play, and we found that the price of copper seems to respond to economic growth with a six-month delay. Perhaps we shouldn’t rely too heavily on Dr Copper’s reputation for giving us an early diagnosis.

US nonfarm payrolls smashed expectations once again, posting 304,000 new jobs in January instead of the 165,000 forecast. Last month’s number was revised down from exceptionally high to very high. The ISM manufacturing survey rose to 56.6, higher than expected, showing that US producers are busy and confident. Consumer sentiment was soggier, however, dropping to the weakest level of Donald Trump’s presidency. It was likely dragged down by the record 35-day government shutdown, yet it held up significantly better than economists had expected.

Traditional defensives have kept pace with economically sensitive sectors through the long and fitful post-crisis recovery. Some ‘defensives’ are decidedly expensive, and investors may need to broaden their search for safe havens. 

As we reach nine consecutive years of global economic growth, investors are not planning celebrations. 

Every time Theresa May gets trounced in Parliament, delays a vote or a member of her Cabinet lets slip that she won’t really force a no-deal exit from the EU, sterling shoots upward.

Markets have stabilised after the ‘Santa slump’ experienced into the year end, helped by comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials suggesting they are moving towards more dovish market expectations. 

More than anything else, one thing has been at the top of our mind lately: in business, if you’re not the cheapest or the best, you’re toast.

Markets took a dive in December, but we think panicked investors may have got ahead of themselves. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth explains why things are relatively ok for global growth, but perhaps not so much for the UK.

Today Theresa May has to present her alternative Brexit plan to Parliament. Facing a hostile House of Commons, the Prime Minister says she won’t do so. Instead, she will reiterate that she is continuing to negotiate with the EU in a bid to unpick the Gordian knot of the Irish backstop. In a chilling echo through time, while Mrs May was trying to shore up support among English Brexiteers a bomb blast shook Londonderry. An IRA splinter group took responsibility. According to one version of history, Alexander the Great untied the impossible knot by cutting it.