Knowledge and insight

Market sentiment has been swinging wildly lately, but in this week’s review chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth explains why he thinks the supply of festive spirits won’t run dry.

A worrying new strain of COVID-19 has upended confidence in economic recovery, the path of interest rates and potentially the arrival of Father Christmas.

It’s shaping up to be another winter tarnished by the virus. As if central bankers needed more complexity on top of huge government spending, upended supply chains and confused labour markets.

The outcome of COP26 has left many people feeling blue about our fight to stop global warming. But that disappointment actually shows how much has changed in a few short years.

At the peak of worries about higher interest rates, central bankers have reiterated their laissez-faire stance to policy. That sent prices of stocks and bonds bouncing higher.

The eyes of the world are watching COP26 for bold action on climate change. Meanwhile, the UK chancellor envisages a ‘new age of optimism’.

Despite some unanticipated giveaways, fiscal policy is tightening dramatically. Political confusion and economic uncertainty further cloud the outlook.

Official statistics are in flux as UK policymakers ponder their plans for the future. Meanwhile, third-quarter US company reporting is off to a great start.

Investors grapple with change as inflation rides higher and economic growth bounces back. Central bankers must come to terms with the new environment as well or risk making bad decisions.