Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: Still plenty of punch in the bowl
Market sentiment has been swinging wildly lately, but in this week’s review chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth explains why he thinks the supply of festive spirits won’t run dry.
7 mins
Review of the week: It’s all Greek now
A worrying new strain of COVID-19 has upended confidence in economic recovery, the path of interest rates and potentially the arrival of Father Christmas.
6 mins
Review of the week: COVID season
It’s shaping up to be another winter tarnished by the virus. As if central bankers needed more complexity on top of huge government spending, upended supply chains and confused labour markets.
4 mins
Review of the week: A different climate
The outcome of COP26 has left many people feeling blue about our fight to stop global warming. But that disappointment actually shows how much has changed in a few short years.
6 mins
Review of the week: Big ambitions, bigger uncertainties?
The eyes of the world are watching COP26 for bold action on climate change. Meanwhile, the UK chancellor envisages a ‘new age of optimism’.
4 mins
Review of the week: Fortune-telling statistics
Official statistics are in flux as UK policymakers ponder their plans for the future. Meanwhile, third-quarter US company reporting is off to a great start.
6 mins
Review of the week: Tug-of-war
Investors grapple with change as inflation rides higher and economic growth bounces back. Central bankers must come to terms with the new environment as well or risk making bad decisions.
6 mins
Review of the week: Bonds go bananas
Bondholders sell government debt aggressively as inflation concerns mount, but are investors overpaying for inflation protection?
6 mins
Review of the week: Furlough’s end
Arguably the greatest welfare programme in UK history has come to an end. That should bring clarity to labour markets and free up workers for more resilient businesses.
5 mins
Review of the week: The price of money
Higher inflation is starting to leak into central bankers’ plans for interest rate hikes and ‘tapering’ of QE. Meanwhile, the UK suffers an energy crisis as the COP26 climate summit approaches.
8 mins
Review of the week: Breathing space
The children have returned to classes and the adults seem to be drifting back to the office. The pandemic still looms large though, affecting travel, spending and taxes.
7 mins
Review of the week: Are labour markets working?
Labour markets are struggling to get to grips with new post-pandemic supply and demand dynamics. Meanwhile, tighter scrutiny is increasing tech companies’ costs of doing business.
4 mins
In context
Investors seem to be flitting between fear and optimism in an increasingly erratic manner. Hopes for a soft-touch Federal Reserve seem to be driving most of the optimism, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
4 mins
A Gordian knot
Markets took a dive in December, but we think panicked investors may have got ahead of themselves. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth explains why things are relatively ok for global growth, but perhaps not so much for the UK
4 mins
Hunting the red October
October was a brutal month for investors, with a simultaneous rise in bond yields and sharp correction in equity markets. In English, this means the value of both bonds and stocks headed the same way: down
4 mins
Hope emerging
Emerging markets recovered sharply last week after a hefty rate hike by the Turkish central bank and a more modest – but still applauded – one by the Russian monetary authority
5 mins
Summer days
It’s been a hot and sleepy summer punctuated by a few small scares, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth. With a bit of luck, the trade-related worries should fade away over the rest of the year.
3 mins
Will he? Won’t he?
The government has got itself in another tangle over Brexit. Meanwhile, chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth investigates the strange dichotomy that’s driving an ascendant dollar.
5 mins
Homo economicus
We all know £2.99 is a bargain and £3.00 is a scandal. Whoever first realised the incredible value hidden in that one pence made a lot of money on our irrationality. Brokers are now probably making that much money again with investors trading feverishly as the 10-year US Treasury broke the 3.00% milestone for the first time in a bit over four years.
5 mins
Tariff tangle
Trade threats and tech troubles have made investors nervous, but economies around the world remain healthy and relatively vibrant. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, says markets are likely to remain rocky, but that should provide opportunities
4 mins
Volatility revisited
After a rocky start markets have since settled, but possibly not for long. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, looks ahead.
4 mins
Second-guessing
Inflation fears roiled markets in early February after a record stretch of stock market calm. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, looks ahead.
5 mins
A miserable miracle
This has been one of the most begrudged share market rallies in modern times. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, explains why political deadlock may help it continue.
5 mins