Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: Still plenty of punch in the bowl
Market sentiment has been swinging wildly lately, but in this week’s review chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth explains why he thinks the supply of festive spirits won’t run dry.
7 mins
Review of the week: It’s all Greek now
A worrying new strain of COVID-19 has upended confidence in economic recovery, the path of interest rates and potentially the arrival of Father Christmas.
6 mins
Review of the week: COVID season
It’s shaping up to be another winter tarnished by the virus. As if central bankers needed more complexity on top of huge government spending, upended supply chains and confused labour markets.
4 mins
Review of the week: A different climate
The outcome of COP26 has left many people feeling blue about our fight to stop global warming. But that disappointment actually shows how much has changed in a few short years.
6 mins
Review of the week: Big ambitions, bigger uncertainties?
The eyes of the world are watching COP26 for bold action on climate change. Meanwhile, the UK chancellor envisages a ‘new age of optimism’.
4 mins
Review of the week: Fortune-telling statistics
Official statistics are in flux as UK policymakers ponder their plans for the future. Meanwhile, third-quarter US company reporting is off to a great start.
6 mins
Review of the week: Tug-of-war
Investors grapple with change as inflation rides higher and economic growth bounces back. Central bankers must come to terms with the new environment as well or risk making bad decisions.
6 mins
Review of the week: Bonds go bananas
Bondholders sell government debt aggressively as inflation concerns mount, but are investors overpaying for inflation protection?
6 mins
Review of the week: Furlough’s end
Arguably the greatest welfare programme in UK history has come to an end. That should bring clarity to labour markets and free up workers for more resilient businesses.
5 mins
Review of the week: The price of money
Higher inflation is starting to leak into central bankers’ plans for interest rate hikes and ‘tapering’ of QE. Meanwhile, the UK suffers an energy crisis as the COP26 climate summit approaches.
8 mins
Review of the week: Breathing space
The children have returned to classes and the adults seem to be drifting back to the office. The pandemic still looms large though, affecting travel, spending and taxes.
7 mins
Review of the week: Are labour markets working?
Labour markets are struggling to get to grips with new post-pandemic supply and demand dynamics. Meanwhile, tighter scrutiny is increasing tech companies’ costs of doing business.
4 mins
Easy does it
Economic statistics fell off a cliff in May, but as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, investors were already anticipating a big bounce as economies began to reopen.
3 mins
This too shall pass
Amid an alphabet soup of economic forecasts, chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth looks for the ingredients of a lasting recovery.
3 mins
March madness
Markets are jig-jagging like a frightened hare as wholesale lockdowns and extraordinary stimulus have streaked across the globe. Our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth reports on the month.
6 mins
Expect the unexpected
As Covid-19 rattles markets and investors scramble for safety,. our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth considers the longer-term implications for the global economy and also looks at the narrowing Democratic primary race to take on Donald Trump.
4 mins
The journey begins
After many debates, votes and faff, the UK is just about ready to start leaving the EU. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth takes a look at the year ahead and the one just gone.
4 mins
Snakes and Ladders
Another deadline, another delay to Brexit – and now another election on top. Meanwhile, the tennis match between China and the US over trade continues, notes our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
5 mins
Blinkers are for horses
Investors are galloping from one extreme to the other in all sorts of markets. But nothing is black and white, warns chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth, so investors should try to focus on the longer term effects and ignore short-term craziness.
5 mins
A last gasp
At his penultimate meeting, outgoing President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi announced a series of measures to ease monetary policy in the listless region. The bank cut deposit rates by 10 basis points to -0.50% and will restart quantitative easing (QE) on 1 November. At just €20 billion (£17.7bn) per month it’s peanuts compared to historic QE – since 2015 the ECB’s bond purchases have totalled €2.65 trillion – but crucially the new programme has no set end date. Until inflation gets back to 2% and stays there, QE and zero rates are here to stay.
4 mins
The weight of a pound
A ghoulish Brexit is weighing on sterling and Donald Trump trade war with China is weighing on the Federal Reserve. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth looks at the effects of both.
7 mins
It doesn’t add up
Stocks soared to new highs in June, but more pessimistic bond markets tolled a more ominous note amid weaker growth, falling earnings, trade tussles and other troubles. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth considers the mixed messages coming from stocks and bonds.
4 mins
New EU inmates take over the asylum
The world seemed to unravel further last month, with British voters electing members to the EU Parliament whose goal is to leave it, and Donald Trump continuing to wield his trade cudgel. Our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth considers the implications.
5 mins
Mixed signals
Equity markets are in a happy mood, climbing through a fog of uncertainty with omens of recession tolling from the bond market. Julian Chillingworth, Rathbones chief investment officer, explains why we think it still makes sense to stay invested, but with vigilance.
3 mins