Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: A different climate
The outcome of COP26 has left many people feeling blue about our fight to stop global warming. But that disappointment actually shows how much has changed in a few short years.
6 mins
Review of the week: Big ambitions, bigger uncertainties?
The eyes of the world are watching COP26 for bold action on climate change. Meanwhile, the UK chancellor envisages a ‘new age of optimism’.
4 mins
Review of the week: Fortune-telling statistics
Official statistics are in flux as UK policymakers ponder their plans for the future. Meanwhile, third-quarter US company reporting is off to a great start.
6 mins
Review of the week: Tug-of-war
Investors grapple with change as inflation rides higher and economic growth bounces back. Central bankers must come to terms with the new environment as well or risk making bad decisions.
6 mins
Review of the week: Bonds go bananas
Bondholders sell government debt aggressively as inflation concerns mount, but are investors overpaying for inflation protection?
6 mins
Review of the week: Furlough’s end
Arguably the greatest welfare programme in UK history has come to an end. That should bring clarity to labour markets and free up workers for more resilient businesses.
5 mins
Review of the week: The price of money
Higher inflation is starting to leak into central bankers’ plans for interest rate hikes and ‘tapering’ of QE. Meanwhile, the UK suffers an energy crisis as the COP26 climate summit approaches.
8 mins
Review of the week: Breathing space
The children have returned to classes and the adults seem to be drifting back to the office. The pandemic still looms large though, affecting travel, spending and taxes.
7 mins
Review of the week: Are labour markets working?
Labour markets are struggling to get to grips with new post-pandemic supply and demand dynamics. Meanwhile, tighter scrutiny is increasing tech companies’ costs of doing business.
4 mins
Review of the week: Red dawn
China reminds everyone that communists like to meddle in markets. Meanwhile earnings are booming in the West as the recovery rolls on despite investor nervousness.
6 mins
Review of the week: Reaching for the heavens
Virgin Galactic pushes the frontiers of tourism yet higher with a successful passenger shuttle flight into the mesosphere. Miles below, COVID-19 continues to spread.
5 mins
Review of the week: Celebrations, American style
US markets make new records just in time for Independence Day. While Americans take a day off, it seems a good time to take a look at a tough corner of the UK labour market.
7 mins
Recovery rolls on, belying rocky times
Earnings are booming in the West as the recovery rolls on despite investor nervousness.
4 mins
Full of surprises
Recent inflation headlines have made for uncomfortable reading, and volatility picked up as investors remained sceptical of policymakers’ messaging. But we don’t think rising inflation is here to stay as there are too many other phenomena that will push it down.
4 mins
America blooms
America is opening up along with the spring blossoms, and a strong summer of spending seems to be on the way. The rebound in fortunes has helped the S&P 500 reach new highs which, as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, go hand in hand with rising yields.
4 mins
Springing yields
Bond yields and a new season’s flowers both sprung up last month, heralding an end to the dark days of lockdown winter. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth ponders the big question on investors’ minds – does this also foreshadow a prolonged period of higher inflation?
3 mins
A bleary-eyed awakening
After a busy start to the year there’s still a lot of uncertainty swirling around in markets. But economies tend to bounce back hard after sombre periods, and hope remains that our eventual return to ‘normal’ will be no different.
3 mins
Optimistic realism in a vaccinated recovery
A roller-coaster of a year finished on a high note for the markets, and we start 2021 with a sense of relief that one of the most difficult years many of us have ever experienced is behind us.
4 mins
Staying balanced
With a clutch of vaccines on the way soon, equity markets were in a buoyant mood in November. But there are still a lot of things we don’t know – and even some things we don’t know that we don’t know…
3 mins
America (finally) decides
Equities fell in October as investors came to terms with tighter lockdown restrictions, but hopes for a new round of US stimulus under President-elect Joe Biden have buoyed markets, and Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth reckons we should take heart.
3 mins
Post holiday blues
With summer fading into memory, a long uncertain winter of social distancing lies ahead. It’s easy to feel gloomy, but as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth argues, we should try not to buy into the doom.
4 mins
A patchy summer
As summer winds down and the pandemic persists, governments are finding it hard to taper their support measures.
4 mins
Managing expectations
The hard data is coming in and so far companies have fared better through the pandemic than expected. Just how long complete recovery will take no one knows, but as chief economist Julian Chillingworth notes, we maintain our long-held belief in the human capacity to co-operate and solve problems.
3 mins
Are the bears in hibernation, or just napping?
With the groundwork laid for a rapid recovery, equity markets reflected continued optimism in June. But as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, significant risks remain.
3 mins