Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: The tie that binds
The war in Ukraine has united typically quarrelsome European states against Russian aggression. Meanwhile, unity in President Vladimir Putin’s nation has been enforced through the strength of an authoritarian regime.
7 mins
Review of the week: Defiance
Russia’s invasion at first wrong-footed both Ukraine and the West, but the defenders’ resolve has been tougher than expected. Now, financial sanctions are hitting Russians hard.
8 mins
Review of the week: Back to the shops
UK retail sales bounced back after a COVID-crushed Christmas. Yet the longest income squeeze since Sir Robert Peel was Prime Minister is set to intensify in the coming months.
6 mins
Review of the week: War looms
Talks to ward off conflict over Ukraine are failing and a Russian invasion is reportedly imminent. Is it brinkmanship or a real risk?
5 mins
Review of the week: Bank on a tough year
The Bank of England seems poised to raise interest rates aggressively to combat inflation, yet its explanations don’t square with its own forecasts and analysis. Expect fewer hikes than the market currently implies.
7 mins
Review of the week: Tighter money
The years of loose money are coming to an end. That will cause some short-term upheaval in markets, but if economies remain strong stocks should soon bounce back.
7 mins
Review of the week: Getting ahead of the Fed
Bond yields have been climbing almost as much as investors’ worry levels. Pausing to remind ourselves what central bankers are trying to achieve – and how stocks typically react – is helpful.
6 mins
Review of the week: Just like the old days
With COVID cases starting to roll over – in the UK at least – and investors settling down for some old-fashioned Fed watching, everyone is hoping 2022 will be a bit more like pre-pandemic times.
6 mins
Review of the week: A strange and profitable year
Another COVID-blighted year has passed. Yet, for all the turmoil, 2021 was a great one for markets.
5 mins
Review of the week: Christmas at risk
Déjà vu in the UK. With COVID cases mounting once again and restrictions piling up, everyone is wondering whether Christmas will be cancelled once again.
5 mins
Review of the week: Still plenty of punch in the bowl
Market sentiment has been swinging wildly lately, but in this week’s review chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth explains why he thinks the supply of festive spirits won’t run dry.
7 mins
Review of the week: It’s all Greek now
A worrying new strain of COVID-19 has upended confidence in economic recovery, the path of interest rates and potentially the arrival of Father Christmas.
6 mins
Easy does it
Economic statistics fell off a cliff in May, but as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, investors were already anticipating a big bounce as economies began to reopen.
3 mins
This too shall pass
Amid an alphabet soup of economic forecasts, chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth looks for the ingredients of a lasting recovery.
3 mins
March madness
Markets are jig-jagging like a frightened hare as wholesale lockdowns and extraordinary stimulus have streaked across the globe. Our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth reports on the month.
6 mins
Expect the unexpected
As Covid-19 rattles markets and investors scramble for safety,. our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth considers the longer-term implications for the global economy and also looks at the narrowing Democratic primary race to take on Donald Trump.
4 mins
The journey begins
After many debates, votes and faff, the UK is just about ready to start leaving the EU. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth takes a look at the year ahead and the one just gone.
4 mins
Snakes and Ladders
Another deadline, another delay to Brexit – and now another election on top. Meanwhile, the tennis match between China and the US over trade continues, notes our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
5 mins
Blinkers are for horses
Investors are galloping from one extreme to the other in all sorts of markets. But nothing is black and white, warns chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth, so investors should try to focus on the longer term effects and ignore short-term craziness.
5 mins
A last gasp
At his penultimate meeting, outgoing President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi announced a series of measures to ease monetary policy in the listless region. The bank cut deposit rates by 10 basis points to -0.50% and will restart quantitative easing (QE) on 1 November. At just €20 billion (£17.7bn) per month it’s peanuts compared to historic QE – since 2015 the ECB’s bond purchases have totalled €2.65 trillion – but crucially the new programme has no set end date. Until inflation gets back to 2% and stays there, QE and zero rates are here to stay.
4 mins
The weight of a pound
A ghoulish Brexit is weighing on sterling and Donald Trump trade war with China is weighing on the Federal Reserve. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth looks at the effects of both.
7 mins
It doesn’t add up
Stocks soared to new highs in June, but more pessimistic bond markets tolled a more ominous note amid weaker growth, falling earnings, trade tussles and other troubles. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth considers the mixed messages coming from stocks and bonds.
4 mins
New EU inmates take over the asylum
The world seemed to unravel further last month, with British voters electing members to the EU Parliament whose goal is to leave it, and Donald Trump continuing to wield his trade cudgel. Our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth considers the implications.
5 mins
Mixed signals
Equity markets are in a happy mood, climbing through a fog of uncertainty with omens of recession tolling from the bond market. Julian Chillingworth, Rathbones chief investment officer, explains why we think it still makes sense to stay invested, but with vigilance.
3 mins