Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: Skip, hop and jump?
All eyes are on the direction of central bank monetary policy. After expecting a policy pivot, investors now think the most likely outcome is a skip in tightening followed by a hop to pause mode before a jump to interest rate cuts.
5 mins
Review of the week: The great retirement
The UK labour market is in a huge state of flux. The population is ageing fast, people are retiring earlier and changes to immigration are leading to a lack of ‘unskilled’ workers.
7 mins
Review of the week: Monetary mea culpa
UK inflation simply won’t drop as fast as everyone hopes, leading the Bank of England to admit it needs a new model. Meanwhile, a compromise is proposed to kick the can on the US debt ceiling till after the next election.
6 mins
Review of the week: The money eraser
Inflation can often seem an abstract concept. Not lately, though: everyone is keenly aware of soaring prices. Is inflation finally starting to drop?
8 mins
Review of the week: Expectations vs reality
There’s a disconnect between how everyone feels and how stock markets are moving. Meanwhile, the US debt ceiling looms ever larger.
8 mins
Review of the week: A very British coronation
A King is crowned and most of England went to the polls last week. Coming up is a Bank of England rate hike and an update for American inflation.
7 mins
Review of the week: Banking eagle, hawked
A regional bank caught up in the March banking crisis has been forcibly sold by an American regulator. Hopefully this marks the end of the chapter.
9 mins
Review of the week: Markets on edge as earnings season picks up pace
Investors are fearful of an earnings recession as reporting season steams ahead. Meanwhile, China’s first-quarter GDP estimate suggests its recovery is proving uneven.
7 mins
Review of the week: The cost of drama
Markets are riven over weighty questions about the economic strength of our households and businesses clashing with higher living costs, and all the while lurks the menace of unknown consequences created by a rapidly changed world.
8 mins
Review of the week: The world has changed
Money was easy to come by in the 2010s, for businesses, households and governments. With interest rates now much higher, hard decisions loom.
7 mins
Review of the week: Back on track?
Stocks and bonds ended the month – and first quarter –nearing the top ends of the trading ranges in place since late last year. But there’s still much uncertainty about the inflation and growth outlook, particularly if energy prices start rising again.
6 mins
Review of the week: The fear bug strikes again
Strong gains for Europe’s banks last week were reversed by Friday’s close. With the fear bug spreading, can we be confident it won’t strike again?
7 mins
In context
Investors seem to be flitting between fear and optimism in an increasingly erratic manner. Hopes for a soft-touch Federal Reserve seem to be driving most of the optimism, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
4 mins
A Gordian knot
Markets took a dive in December, but we think panicked investors may have got ahead of themselves. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth explains why things are relatively ok for global growth, but perhaps not so much for the UK
4 mins
Hunting the red October
October was a brutal month for investors, with a simultaneous rise in bond yields and sharp correction in equity markets. In English, this means the value of both bonds and stocks headed the same way: down
4 mins
Hope emerging
Emerging markets recovered sharply last week after a hefty rate hike by the Turkish central bank and a more modest – but still applauded – one by the Russian monetary authority
5 mins
Summer days
It’s been a hot and sleepy summer punctuated by a few small scares, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth. With a bit of luck, the trade-related worries should fade away over the rest of the year.
3 mins
Will he? Won’t he?
The government has got itself in another tangle over Brexit. Meanwhile, chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth investigates the strange dichotomy that’s driving an ascendant dollar.
5 mins
Homo economicus
We all know £2.99 is a bargain and £3.00 is a scandal. Whoever first realised the incredible value hidden in that one pence made a lot of money on our irrationality. Brokers are now probably making that much money again with investors trading feverishly as the 10-year US Treasury broke the 3.00% milestone for the first time in a bit over four years.
5 mins
Tariff tangle
Trade threats and tech troubles have made investors nervous, but economies around the world remain healthy and relatively vibrant. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, says markets are likely to remain rocky, but that should provide opportunities
4 mins
Volatility revisited
After a rocky start markets have since settled, but possibly not for long. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, looks ahead.
4 mins
Second-guessing
Inflation fears roiled markets in early February after a record stretch of stock market calm. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, looks ahead.
5 mins
A miserable miracle
This has been one of the most begrudged share market rallies in modern times. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, explains why political deadlock may help it continue.
5 mins