Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: The Israeli-Hamas Conflict
This week has seen harrowing atrocities committed by the terrorist group Hamas against Israeli civilians. With so far more than 1,200 people reported to have been killed, this is the most serious cross-border attack Israel has faced in decades.
4 mins
Review of the week: Uncertainty spreads
Central bankers in the US and UK decided interest rates shouldn’t go higher in September; bond investors disagreed.
6 mins
Review of the week: Will interest rates plateau after peaking?
Will the big central banks making significant interest rate announcements this week follow the ECB’s lead and signal that rates have now peaked? And where might rates settle longer term?
6 mins
Review of the week: The good oil
Like virtually everything else, the cost of energy is much higher than it used to be. Combined with higher interest rates, it should keep squeezing economic growth in the coming months.
8 mins
Review of the week: Not the August planned
Hopes for a quiet summer were dashed by difficult-to-read economic data, swinging bond yields and holiday dramas.
5 mins
Review of the week: Soft landing?
Rather than a slow fade, the American economy produced a surprise surge. Yet with inflation within touching distance of the 2% target, US interest rates may still peak soon.
10 mins
Review of the week: Higher or Lower
Interest rate hikes for the US and Europe are almost certain this week. All major central banks are getting close to calling time on rate increases, but the UK is likely to be the last to do so.
9 mins
Review of the week: Running hot and cold
Inflation is falling nicely in the US, will British CPI follow suit this week? Meanwhile, China battles deflation as its economy stutters.
7 mins
Review of the week: Interesting times for bonds
Normally staid bond markets seem highly strung lately, but there are reasons to hope for some loosening up
5 mins
Review of the week: No rain, no rain
Economic data has been confusing for a while. Thankfully, there’s a central bank hiatus just big enough to slip Wimbledon into.
5 mins
Review of the week: An independent scapegoat?
The Bank of England is throwing the kitchen sink at runaway inflation. Will it be enough, and are there some things that are outside its control?
8 mins
Review of the week: Take the long view on rates
UK inflation may shock gilt markets this week. But if so it’s likely to be a passing phase as price rises continue to cool over the summer.
4 mins
In context
Investors seem to be flitting between fear and optimism in an increasingly erratic manner. Hopes for a soft-touch Federal Reserve seem to be driving most of the optimism, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
4 mins
A Gordian knot
Markets took a dive in December, but we think panicked investors may have got ahead of themselves. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth explains why things are relatively ok for global growth, but perhaps not so much for the UK
4 mins
Hunting the red October
October was a brutal month for investors, with a simultaneous rise in bond yields and sharp correction in equity markets. In English, this means the value of both bonds and stocks headed the same way: down
4 mins
Hope emerging
Emerging markets recovered sharply last week after a hefty rate hike by the Turkish central bank and a more modest – but still applauded – one by the Russian monetary authority
5 mins
Summer days
It’s been a hot and sleepy summer punctuated by a few small scares, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth. With a bit of luck, the trade-related worries should fade away over the rest of the year.
3 mins
Will he? Won’t he?
The government has got itself in another tangle over Brexit. Meanwhile, chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth investigates the strange dichotomy that’s driving an ascendant dollar.
5 mins
Homo economicus
We all know £2.99 is a bargain and £3.00 is a scandal. Whoever first realised the incredible value hidden in that one pence made a lot of money on our irrationality. Brokers are now probably making that much money again with investors trading feverishly as the 10-year US Treasury broke the 3.00% milestone for the first time in a bit over four years.
5 mins
Tariff tangle
Trade threats and tech troubles have made investors nervous, but economies around the world remain healthy and relatively vibrant. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, says markets are likely to remain rocky, but that should provide opportunities
4 mins
Volatility revisited
After a rocky start markets have since settled, but possibly not for long. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, looks ahead.
4 mins
Second-guessing
Inflation fears roiled markets in early February after a record stretch of stock market calm. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, looks ahead.
5 mins
A miserable miracle
This has been one of the most begrudged share market rallies in modern times. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, explains why political deadlock may help it continue.
5 mins