Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: The Israeli-Hamas Conflict
This week has seen harrowing atrocities committed by the terrorist group Hamas against Israeli civilians. With so far more than 1,200 people reported to have been killed, this is the most serious cross-border attack Israel has faced in decades.
4 mins
Review of the week: Uncertainty spreads
Central bankers in the US and UK decided interest rates shouldn’t go higher in September; bond investors disagreed.
6 mins
Review of the week: Will interest rates plateau after peaking?
Will the big central banks making significant interest rate announcements this week follow the ECB’s lead and signal that rates have now peaked? And where might rates settle longer term?
6 mins
Review of the week: The good oil
Like virtually everything else, the cost of energy is much higher than it used to be. Combined with higher interest rates, it should keep squeezing economic growth in the coming months.
8 mins
Review of the week: Not the August planned
Hopes for a quiet summer were dashed by difficult-to-read economic data, swinging bond yields and holiday dramas.
5 mins
Review of the week: Soft landing?
Rather than a slow fade, the American economy produced a surprise surge. Yet with inflation within touching distance of the 2% target, US interest rates may still peak soon.
10 mins
Review of the week: Higher or Lower
Interest rate hikes for the US and Europe are almost certain this week. All major central banks are getting close to calling time on rate increases, but the UK is likely to be the last to do so.
9 mins
Review of the week: Running hot and cold
Inflation is falling nicely in the US, will British CPI follow suit this week? Meanwhile, China battles deflation as its economy stutters.
7 mins
Review of the week: Interesting times for bonds
Normally staid bond markets seem highly strung lately, but there are reasons to hope for some loosening up
5 mins
Review of the week: No rain, no rain
Economic data has been confusing for a while. Thankfully, there’s a central bank hiatus just big enough to slip Wimbledon into.
5 mins
Review of the week: An independent scapegoat?
The Bank of England is throwing the kitchen sink at runaway inflation. Will it be enough, and are there some things that are outside its control?
8 mins
Review of the week: Take the long view on rates
UK inflation may shock gilt markets this week. But if so it’s likely to be a passing phase as price rises continue to cool over the summer.
4 mins
Easy does it
Economic statistics fell off a cliff in May, but as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, investors were already anticipating a big bounce as economies began to reopen.
3 mins
This too shall pass
Amid an alphabet soup of economic forecasts, chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth looks for the ingredients of a lasting recovery.
3 mins
March madness
Markets are jig-jagging like a frightened hare as wholesale lockdowns and extraordinary stimulus have streaked across the globe. Our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth reports on the month.
6 mins
Expect the unexpected
As Covid-19 rattles markets and investors scramble for safety,. our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth considers the longer-term implications for the global economy and also looks at the narrowing Democratic primary race to take on Donald Trump.
4 mins
The journey begins
After many debates, votes and faff, the UK is just about ready to start leaving the EU. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth takes a look at the year ahead and the one just gone.
4 mins
Snakes and Ladders
Another deadline, another delay to Brexit – and now another election on top. Meanwhile, the tennis match between China and the US over trade continues, notes our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
5 mins
Blinkers are for horses
Investors are galloping from one extreme to the other in all sorts of markets. But nothing is black and white, warns chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth, so investors should try to focus on the longer term effects and ignore short-term craziness.
5 mins
A last gasp
At his penultimate meeting, outgoing President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi announced a series of measures to ease monetary policy in the listless region. The bank cut deposit rates by 10 basis points to -0.50% and will restart quantitative easing (QE) on 1 November. At just €20 billion (£17.7bn) per month it’s peanuts compared to historic QE – since 2015 the ECB’s bond purchases have totalled €2.65 trillion – but crucially the new programme has no set end date. Until inflation gets back to 2% and stays there, QE and zero rates are here to stay.
4 mins
The weight of a pound
A ghoulish Brexit is weighing on sterling and Donald Trump trade war with China is weighing on the Federal Reserve. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth looks at the effects of both.
7 mins
It doesn’t add up
Stocks soared to new highs in June, but more pessimistic bond markets tolled a more ominous note amid weaker growth, falling earnings, trade tussles and other troubles. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth considers the mixed messages coming from stocks and bonds.
4 mins
New EU inmates take over the asylum
The world seemed to unravel further last month, with British voters electing members to the EU Parliament whose goal is to leave it, and Donald Trump continuing to wield his trade cudgel. Our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth considers the implications.
5 mins
Mixed signals
Equity markets are in a happy mood, climbing through a fog of uncertainty with omens of recession tolling from the bond market. Julian Chillingworth, Rathbones chief investment officer, explains why we think it still makes sense to stay invested, but with vigilance.
3 mins