Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: The cavalry (finally) arrives
The pandemic is spreading rapidly in the US, which is now following the rest of the West into self-isolation. Beware of leverage and expect dividend cuts, warns our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
5 mins
Review of the week: Throwing the kitchen sink
The UK government has unveiled a phenomenal package of support to try to stem layoffs and backstop society. Now people have to lend their support to each other, argues our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
7 mins
Review of the week: The fury of the storm
The pandemic has pounded global markets, spreading fear and upending commerce and people’s lives. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth plots a path through the chaos.
8 mins
Review of the week: Markets slip on oil
As Saudi Arabia fires the first shot in an oil price war, our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth considers the longer-term implications in light of the Covid-19 epidemic. He also looks at the surprising results of Super Tuesday and the narrowing Democratic race for the White House.
5 mins
Review of the week: A long shadow
As markets take a respite from their worst week of selling since the dark days of the Lehman’s collapse, our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth considers the longer-term implications for investors, and also looks at the narrowing Democratic primary race to take on Donald Trump.
5 mins
Review of the week: Fear spreads too
As economic fears spread along with the widening global outbreak of coronavirus, our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth considers the implications for investors. He also ponders whether the economy will continue to be a ‘Trump’ card for the US President as November elections approach.
5 mins
Review of the week: No love lost
This year Valentine’s Day was clouded by news of Chancellor Sajid Javid leaving Number 11 and the ongoing spread of coronavirus around the globe. But the markets took it all in their stride, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
5 mins
Review of the week: Fisheries and finance
Will the pull of the heart prevail against the mind in Brexit negotiations? Will a nasty outbreak of flu be the start of a beautiful friendship between Trump and Xi? Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth is dubious.
7 mins
Review of the week: The king of viruses?
An aggressive flu has disrupted the Chinese New Year and put the world on high alert. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth thinks it’s a bit early to panic, but that could soon be overtaken by a fast-moving virus.
6 mins
Review of the week: America first
China and the US have signed a one-sided trade deal that has got investors excited about the year ahead. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes recession concerns have been well and truly supplanted.
6 mins
Review of the week: Sky rockets in flight
Stock markets went bananas last year as China and the US appeared to finally agree on trade. But then the killing of a top Iranian general set off geopolitical fireworks. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth mulls the consequences.
7 mins
Review of the week : A Christmas Carol
Boris Johnson has won a strong mandate to get on with his Brexit deal, sending sterling shooting higher. But there’s something unusual going on with UK stocks, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
5 mins
Easy does it
Economic statistics fell off a cliff in May, but as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, investors were already anticipating a big bounce as economies began to reopen.
3 mins
This too shall pass
Amid an alphabet soup of economic forecasts, chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth looks for the ingredients of a lasting recovery.
3 mins
March madness
Markets are jig-jagging like a frightened hare as wholesale lockdowns and extraordinary stimulus have streaked across the globe. Our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth reports on the month.
6 mins
Expect the unexpected
As Covid-19 rattles markets and investors scramble for safety,. our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth considers the longer-term implications for the global economy and also looks at the narrowing Democratic primary race to take on Donald Trump.
4 mins
The journey begins
After many debates, votes and faff, the UK is just about ready to start leaving the EU. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth takes a look at the year ahead and the one just gone.
4 mins
Snakes and Ladders
Another deadline, another delay to Brexit – and now another election on top. Meanwhile, the tennis match between China and the US over trade continues, notes our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
5 mins
Blinkers are for horses
Investors are galloping from one extreme to the other in all sorts of markets. But nothing is black and white, warns chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth, so investors should try to focus on the longer term effects and ignore short-term craziness.
5 mins
A last gasp
At his penultimate meeting, outgoing President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi announced a series of measures to ease monetary policy in the listless region. The bank cut deposit rates by 10 basis points to -0.50% and will restart quantitative easing (QE) on 1 November. At just €20 billion (£17.7bn) per month it’s peanuts compared to historic QE – since 2015 the ECB’s bond purchases have totalled €2.65 trillion – but crucially the new programme has no set end date. Until inflation gets back to 2% and stays there, QE and zero rates are here to stay.
4 mins
The weight of a pound
A ghoulish Brexit is weighing on sterling and Donald Trump trade war with China is weighing on the Federal Reserve. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth looks at the effects of both.
7 mins
It doesn’t add up
Stocks soared to new highs in June, but more pessimistic bond markets tolled a more ominous note amid weaker growth, falling earnings, trade tussles and other troubles. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth considers the mixed messages coming from stocks and bonds.
4 mins
New EU inmates take over the asylum
The world seemed to unravel further last month, with British voters electing members to the EU Parliament whose goal is to leave it, and Donald Trump continuing to wield his trade cudgel. Our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth considers the implications.
5 mins
Mixed signals
Equity markets are in a happy mood, climbing through a fog of uncertainty with omens of recession tolling from the bond market. Julian Chillingworth, Rathbones chief investment officer, explains why we think it still makes sense to stay invested, but with vigilance.
3 mins