Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: Tally ho!
Call it pluck or devil-may-care recklessness, the UK has committed to diving out of the EU completely in 2021, deal or no deal. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth takes stock of the situation.
7 mins
Review of the week: Independence Day lockdown
People are extremely adaptable as prolonged lockdowns have shown. Yet chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth ponders how changes to the way we live will shake out in the coming months and years.
6 mins
Review of the week: Money showers
After the pandemic response, outstanding UK government debt is now as big as the whole economy. But that’s not necessarily an alarm bell, says chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth, as long as it’s spent on the right things.
6 mins
Review of the week: KA-boom
Stock markets are soaring higher as the developed world starts to relax lockdowns. Yet the virus is spreading rapidly in the emerging world, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth, and there’s still a chance of a second wave in the West.
6 mins
Review of the week: Injustice burns
America seems chaotic from the top down. Yet, if you look hard at the bottom – main street – you can get a better idea of how the US is faring, argues chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
6 mins
Review of the week: A matter of perception
While we’re all theorising about whether looking at a castle is the best form of optometry, really important issues are going unaddressed. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth stays focused on what matters.
7 mins
Review of the week: The most important resource
7 mins
Review of the week: Influencing behaviour
The government has unveiled its lockdown exit plan to mixed reception. Our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth thinks attention is best paid elsewhere.
7 mins
Victory is coming
This Friday we remember the victory of an older generation. They won peace and reshaped the world, becoming a timeless example for humanity, argues our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
7 mins
Review of the week: Too much oil
Crazy phenomena like negative oil prices will keep popping up over the coming months, warns our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth. Investors will ignore most of it, but when they do panic, stocks could return to their March lows.
7 mins
Review of the week: Peak sadness
Stocks have shot higher even as people are laid off in droves and the virus continues to spread. Investors aren’t cheering misery, our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth explains, they are trying to predict the future.
6 mins
In context
Investors seem to be flitting between fear and optimism in an increasingly erratic manner. Hopes for a soft-touch Federal Reserve seem to be driving most of the optimism, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
4 mins
A Gordian knot
Markets took a dive in December, but we think panicked investors may have got ahead of themselves. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth explains why things are relatively ok for global growth, but perhaps not so much for the UK
4 mins
Hunting the red October
October was a brutal month for investors, with a simultaneous rise in bond yields and sharp correction in equity markets. In English, this means the value of both bonds and stocks headed the same way: down
4 mins
Hope emerging
Emerging markets recovered sharply last week after a hefty rate hike by the Turkish central bank and a more modest – but still applauded – one by the Russian monetary authority
5 mins
Summer days
It’s been a hot and sleepy summer punctuated by a few small scares, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth. With a bit of luck, the trade-related worries should fade away over the rest of the year.
3 mins
Will he? Won’t he?
The government has got itself in another tangle over Brexit. Meanwhile, chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth investigates the strange dichotomy that’s driving an ascendant dollar.
5 mins
Homo economicus
We all know £2.99 is a bargain and £3.00 is a scandal. Whoever first realised the incredible value hidden in that one pence made a lot of money on our irrationality. Brokers are now probably making that much money again with investors trading feverishly as the 10-year US Treasury broke the 3.00% milestone for the first time in a bit over four years.
5 mins
Tariff tangle
Trade threats and tech troubles have made investors nervous, but economies around the world remain healthy and relatively vibrant. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, says markets are likely to remain rocky, but that should provide opportunities
4 mins
Volatility revisited
After a rocky start markets have since settled, but possibly not for long. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, looks ahead.
4 mins
Second-guessing
Inflation fears roiled markets in early February after a record stretch of stock market calm. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, looks ahead.
5 mins
A miserable miracle
This has been one of the most begrudged share market rallies in modern times. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, explains why political deadlock may help it continue.
5 mins