Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: Independence Day lockdown
People are extremely adaptable as prolonged lockdowns have shown. Yet chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth ponders how changes to the way we live will shake out in the coming months and years.
6 mins
Review of the week: Money showers
After the pandemic response, outstanding UK government debt is now as big as the whole economy. But that’s not necessarily an alarm bell, says chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth, as long as it’s spent on the right things.
6 mins
Review of the week: KA-boom
Stock markets are soaring higher as the developed world starts to relax lockdowns. Yet the virus is spreading rapidly in the emerging world, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth, and there’s still a chance of a second wave in the West.
6 mins
Review of the week: Injustice burns
America seems chaotic from the top down. Yet, if you look hard at the bottom – main street – you can get a better idea of how the US is faring, argues chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
6 mins
Review of the week: A matter of perception
While we’re all theorising about whether looking at a castle is the best form of optometry, really important issues are going unaddressed. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth stays focused on what matters.
7 mins
Review of the week: The most important resource
7 mins
Review of the week: Influencing behaviour
The government has unveiled its lockdown exit plan to mixed reception. Our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth thinks attention is best paid elsewhere.
7 mins
Victory is coming
This Friday we remember the victory of an older generation. They won peace and reshaped the world, becoming a timeless example for humanity, argues our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
7 mins
Review of the week: Too much oil
Crazy phenomena like negative oil prices will keep popping up over the coming months, warns our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth. Investors will ignore most of it, but when they do panic, stocks could return to their March lows.
7 mins
Review of the week: Peak sadness
Stocks have shot higher even as people are laid off in droves and the virus continues to spread. Investors aren’t cheering misery, our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth explains, they are trying to predict the future.
6 mins
Review of the week: The Bramble Bush
With the virus outbreak still in full swing, some Western nations are already mulling a relaxation of lockdown. In the US, that has led to a showdown between the layers of government. These are tough decisions to make, notes our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
6 mins
Easy does it
Economic statistics fell off a cliff in May, but as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, investors were already anticipating a big bounce as economies began to reopen.
3 mins
This too shall pass
Amid an alphabet soup of economic forecasts, chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth looks for the ingredients of a lasting recovery.
3 mins
March madness
Markets are jig-jagging like a frightened hare as wholesale lockdowns and extraordinary stimulus have streaked across the globe. Our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth reports on the month.
6 mins
Expect the unexpected
As Covid-19 rattles markets and investors scramble for safety,. our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth considers the longer-term implications for the global economy and also looks at the narrowing Democratic primary race to take on Donald Trump.
4 mins
The journey begins
After many debates, votes and faff, the UK is just about ready to start leaving the EU. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth takes a look at the year ahead and the one just gone.
4 mins
Snakes and Ladders
Another deadline, another delay to Brexit – and now another election on top. Meanwhile, the tennis match between China and the US over trade continues, notes our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
5 mins
Blinkers are for horses
Investors are galloping from one extreme to the other in all sorts of markets. But nothing is black and white, warns chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth, so investors should try to focus on the longer term effects and ignore short-term craziness.
5 mins
A last gasp
At his penultimate meeting, outgoing President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi announced a series of measures to ease monetary policy in the listless region. The bank cut deposit rates by 10 basis points to -0.50% and will restart quantitative easing (QE) on 1 November. At just €20 billion (£17.7bn) per month it’s peanuts compared to historic QE – since 2015 the ECB’s bond purchases have totalled €2.65 trillion – but crucially the new programme has no set end date. Until inflation gets back to 2% and stays there, QE and zero rates are here to stay.
4 mins
The weight of a pound
A ghoulish Brexit is weighing on sterling and Donald Trump trade war with China is weighing on the Federal Reserve. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth looks at the effects of both.
7 mins
It doesn’t add up
Stocks soared to new highs in June, but more pessimistic bond markets tolled a more ominous note amid weaker growth, falling earnings, trade tussles and other troubles. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth considers the mixed messages coming from stocks and bonds.
4 mins
New EU inmates take over the asylum
The world seemed to unravel further last month, with British voters electing members to the EU Parliament whose goal is to leave it, and Donald Trump continuing to wield his trade cudgel. Our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth considers the implications.
5 mins
Mixed signals
Equity markets are in a happy mood, climbing through a fog of uncertainty with omens of recession tolling from the bond market. Julian Chillingworth, Rathbones chief investment officer, explains why we think it still makes sense to stay invested, but with vigilance.
3 mins