Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: KA-boom
Stock markets are soaring higher as the developed world starts to relax lockdowns. Yet the virus is spreading rapidly in the emerging world, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth, and there’s still a chance of a second wave in the West.
6 mins
Review of the week: Injustice burns
America seems chaotic from the top down. Yet, if you look hard at the bottom – main street – you can get a better idea of how the US is faring, argues chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
6 mins
Review of the week: A matter of perception
While we’re all theorising about whether looking at a castle is the best form of optometry, really important issues are going unaddressed. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth stays focused on what matters.
7 mins
Review of the week: The most important resource
7 mins
Review of the week: Influencing behaviour
The government has unveiled its lockdown exit plan to mixed reception. Our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth thinks attention is best paid elsewhere.
7 mins
Victory is coming
This Friday we remember the victory of an older generation. They won peace and reshaped the world, becoming a timeless example for humanity, argues our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
7 mins
Review of the week: Too much oil
Crazy phenomena like negative oil prices will keep popping up over the coming months, warns our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth. Investors will ignore most of it, but when they do panic, stocks could return to their March lows.
7 mins
Review of the week: Peak sadness
Stocks have shot higher even as people are laid off in droves and the virus continues to spread. Investors aren’t cheering misery, our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth explains, they are trying to predict the future.
6 mins
Review of the week: The Bramble Bush
With the virus outbreak still in full swing, some Western nations are already mulling a relaxation of lockdown. In the US, that has led to a showdown between the layers of government. These are tough decisions to make, notes our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
6 mins
Review of the week: The Eye of the Storm
Europe’s COVID-19 cases seem to be peaking, the UK has at least another fortnight to go and America’s problems seem to be only beginning. The world is now in a race against the clock, notes our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
7 mins
Review of the week: The cavalry (finally) arrives
The pandemic is spreading rapidly in the US, which is now following the rest of the West into self-isolation. Beware of leverage and expect dividend cuts, warns our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
5 mins
Recovery rolls on, belying rocky times
Earnings are booming in the West as the recovery rolls on despite investor nervousness.
4 mins
Full of surprises
Recent inflation headlines have made for uncomfortable reading, and volatility picked up as investors remained sceptical of policymakers’ messaging. But we don’t think rising inflation is here to stay as there are too many other phenomena that will push it down.
4 mins
America blooms
America is opening up along with the spring blossoms, and a strong summer of spending seems to be on the way. The rebound in fortunes has helped the S&P 500 reach new highs which, as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, go hand in hand with rising yields.
4 mins
Springing yields
Bond yields and a new season’s flowers both sprung up last month, heralding an end to the dark days of lockdown winter. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth ponders the big question on investors’ minds – does this also foreshadow a prolonged period of higher inflation?
3 mins
A bleary-eyed awakening
After a busy start to the year there’s still a lot of uncertainty swirling around in markets. But economies tend to bounce back hard after sombre periods, and hope remains that our eventual return to ‘normal’ will be no different.
3 mins
Optimistic realism in a vaccinated recovery
A roller-coaster of a year finished on a high note for the markets, and we start 2021 with a sense of relief that one of the most difficult years many of us have ever experienced is behind us.
4 mins
Staying balanced
With a clutch of vaccines on the way soon, equity markets were in a buoyant mood in November. But there are still a lot of things we don’t know – and even some things we don’t know that we don’t know…
3 mins
America (finally) decides
Equities fell in October as investors came to terms with tighter lockdown restrictions, but hopes for a new round of US stimulus under President-elect Joe Biden have buoyed markets, and Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth reckons we should take heart.
3 mins
Post holiday blues
With summer fading into memory, a long uncertain winter of social distancing lies ahead. It’s easy to feel gloomy, but as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth argues, we should try not to buy into the doom.
4 mins
A patchy summer
As summer winds down and the pandemic persists, governments are finding it hard to taper their support measures.
4 mins
Managing expectations
The hard data is coming in and so far companies have fared better through the pandemic than expected. Just how long complete recovery will take no one knows, but as chief economist Julian Chillingworth notes, we maintain our long-held belief in the human capacity to co-operate and solve problems.
3 mins
Are the bears in hibernation, or just napping?
With the groundwork laid for a rapid recovery, equity markets reflected continued optimism in June. But as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, significant risks remain.
3 mins