Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: Sliced and diced
We all try to structure our financial affairs as efficiently as possible, so we have more money to do what we want with our lives. Yet sometimes our financial affairs start to affect the structure of our lives and our communities, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
8 mins
Review of the week: Predicting the unpredictable
Biden has taken the edge in the polls but previous experience begs the question: do polls really matter? Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, mulls the possible outcomes of the US election and the effectiveness of the UK government’s spending packages.
6 mins
Review of the week: Computer says no
The government started the fourth quarter with the political equivalent of a kitchen-sinking. Best to focus your attention elsewhere, argues chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth, like better-than expected economic data and the potential for monetary stimulus.
5 mins
Review of the week: Time flies
There’s so much going on that it can seem like nothing in isolation makes any difference. That’s not true, argues chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth. Every decision matters.
6 mins
Review of the week: Post-holiday blues
As winter approaches, the news looks glum. Yet we should take heart from our ability to adapt, argues chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
7 mins
Review of the week: Balancing act
The infectiousness of COVID-19 means economic growth is often bundled with new cases. Governments, people and businesses have to make hard choices, argues chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth, and the conundrum isn’t going away soon.
6 mins
Review of the week: Otherwise fine
As summer winds down and the pandemic persists, governments are finding it hard to taper their support measures. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth is chipper enough, albeit with an umbrella under his arm.
7 mins
Review of the week: White House rescue
Congress failed to seal a benefit extension for unemployed Americans or figure out how to support cash-strapped states as the summer recess looms. It fell to the President to come up with a contested stopgap.
7 mins
Review of the week: Control the message
Corporate results fared well during lockdowns, yet they are still well below pre-pandemic levels. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth examines why gold has hit record highs and why ‘riskier’ banks have done better than vanilla ones.
7 mins
Review of the week: Foxes and storks
Investors have piled into gold as the reality of US-China diplomacy starts to resemble Aesop’s fabled fox and stork. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth also ponders whether US tech shares are priced for perfection as he looks ahead to some big earnings results this week.
5 mins
Review of the week: Harder than you think
For months, the American economy has shrugged off a muddled response to the pandemic, posting better-than-expected numbers. Reality may finally have caught up, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
6 mins
Review of the week: Looking ahead
The situation is a bit foggy right now, so investors are trying to figure out whether economies and companies are generally heading in the right direction. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth rounds up earnings and inflation.
8 mins
In context
Investors seem to be flitting between fear and optimism in an increasingly erratic manner. Hopes for a soft-touch Federal Reserve seem to be driving most of the optimism, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
4 mins
A Gordian knot
Markets took a dive in December, but we think panicked investors may have got ahead of themselves. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth explains why things are relatively ok for global growth, but perhaps not so much for the UK
4 mins
Hunting the red October
October was a brutal month for investors, with a simultaneous rise in bond yields and sharp correction in equity markets. In English, this means the value of both bonds and stocks headed the same way: down
4 mins
Hope emerging
Emerging markets recovered sharply last week after a hefty rate hike by the Turkish central bank and a more modest – but still applauded – one by the Russian monetary authority
5 mins
Summer days
It’s been a hot and sleepy summer punctuated by a few small scares, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth. With a bit of luck, the trade-related worries should fade away over the rest of the year.
3 mins
Will he? Won’t he?
The government has got itself in another tangle over Brexit. Meanwhile, chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth investigates the strange dichotomy that’s driving an ascendant dollar.
5 mins
Homo economicus
We all know £2.99 is a bargain and £3.00 is a scandal. Whoever first realised the incredible value hidden in that one pence made a lot of money on our irrationality. Brokers are now probably making that much money again with investors trading feverishly as the 10-year US Treasury broke the 3.00% milestone for the first time in a bit over four years.
5 mins
Tariff tangle
Trade threats and tech troubles have made investors nervous, but economies around the world remain healthy and relatively vibrant. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, says markets are likely to remain rocky, but that should provide opportunities
4 mins
Volatility revisited
After a rocky start markets have since settled, but possibly not for long. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, looks ahead.
4 mins
Second-guessing
Inflation fears roiled markets in early February after a record stretch of stock market calm. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, looks ahead.
5 mins
A miserable miracle
This has been one of the most begrudged share market rallies in modern times. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, explains why political deadlock may help it continue.
5 mins