Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: Earning favour
Company profits are bouncing back fast in 2021, but we are not out of the COVID cavern yet. If the virus remains unchecked in South America and Asia, it may weigh on global growth.
7 mins
Review of the week: Fun, in a coat
The air is cold but the company is warm. England wraps up for the reopening of pubs and restaurants.
4 mins
Review of the week: A chill wind blows
A week of Fed watching cooled the recent rise in US Treasury yields, sending the dollar and sterling lower. Then British flags followed suit.
6 mins
Review of the week: Resurrection
The US economy is rocketing towards recovery, with jobs, confidence and output soaring amid a strong vaccination drive and stimulus. Next on the list, investment in clean energy.
6 mins
Review of the week: The delicate web of trade
The strands of trade connecting markets are as important to our living standards as they are fragile. A stranded ship in the Suez highlights both points at once.
5 mins
Review of the week: Calm in the eye of the storm
As the fight against COVID-19 continues, economies are beginning to reopen. Are we about to experience a typhoon of activity to mirror the huge slumps of 2020?
6 mins
Review of the week: Cheques and balances
The average American family has received $11,400 of government cheques since the pandemic began. That’s a big windfall for people and a difficult economic puzzle for the US Federal Reserve to decipher.
7 mins
Review of the week: America rising
The US is about to turn on the spending taps once again to combat the effects of the pandemic. This time it coincides with the reopening, so expectations for GDP growth are soaring – taking yields with them.
6 mins
Review of the week: Bond vigilantes
When bond markets move, governments and stock markets take note. A swift rise in yields has rattled equities and focused attention on countries’ swollen debt piles.
7 mins
Review of the week: Sprouts of spring
Flowers, hopes and yields are rising as spring approaches. Still, the UK government is only very cautiously reopening as vaccinations continue apace.
7 mins
Review of the week: Profits are back
Company profits are bouncing back earlier than expected. How quickly will our economies come back to life once vaccinations are finished? And how different will they be?
5 mins
Review of the week: Ghosts of the past
Are we due a re-run of the Roaring Twenties? And if so, what does that mean? A look back at the world’s last post-pandemic recovery and a bit more besides.
8 mins
In context
Investors seem to be flitting between fear and optimism in an increasingly erratic manner. Hopes for a soft-touch Federal Reserve seem to be driving most of the optimism, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
4 mins
A Gordian knot
Markets took a dive in December, but we think panicked investors may have got ahead of themselves. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth explains why things are relatively ok for global growth, but perhaps not so much for the UK
4 mins
Hunting the red October
October was a brutal month for investors, with a simultaneous rise in bond yields and sharp correction in equity markets. In English, this means the value of both bonds and stocks headed the same way: down
4 mins
Hope emerging
Emerging markets recovered sharply last week after a hefty rate hike by the Turkish central bank and a more modest – but still applauded – one by the Russian monetary authority
5 mins
Summer days
It’s been a hot and sleepy summer punctuated by a few small scares, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth. With a bit of luck, the trade-related worries should fade away over the rest of the year.
3 mins
Will he? Won’t he?
The government has got itself in another tangle over Brexit. Meanwhile, chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth investigates the strange dichotomy that’s driving an ascendant dollar.
5 mins
Homo economicus
We all know £2.99 is a bargain and £3.00 is a scandal. Whoever first realised the incredible value hidden in that one pence made a lot of money on our irrationality. Brokers are now probably making that much money again with investors trading feverishly as the 10-year US Treasury broke the 3.00% milestone for the first time in a bit over four years.
5 mins
Tariff tangle
Trade threats and tech troubles have made investors nervous, but economies around the world remain healthy and relatively vibrant. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, says markets are likely to remain rocky, but that should provide opportunities
4 mins
Volatility revisited
After a rocky start markets have since settled, but possibly not for long. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, looks ahead.
4 mins
Second-guessing
Inflation fears roiled markets in early February after a record stretch of stock market calm. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, looks ahead.
5 mins
A miserable miracle
This has been one of the most begrudged share market rallies in modern times. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, explains why political deadlock may help it continue.
5 mins