Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: Earning favour
Company profits are bouncing back fast in 2021, but we are not out of the COVID cavern yet. If the virus remains unchecked in South America and Asia, it may weigh on global growth.
7 mins
Review of the week: Fun, in a coat
The air is cold but the company is warm. England wraps up for the reopening of pubs and restaurants.
4 mins
Review of the week: A chill wind blows
A week of Fed watching cooled the recent rise in US Treasury yields, sending the dollar and sterling lower. Then British flags followed suit.
6 mins
Review of the week: Resurrection
The US economy is rocketing towards recovery, with jobs, confidence and output soaring amid a strong vaccination drive and stimulus. Next on the list, investment in clean energy.
6 mins
Review of the week: The delicate web of trade
The strands of trade connecting markets are as important to our living standards as they are fragile. A stranded ship in the Suez highlights both points at once.
5 mins
Review of the week: Calm in the eye of the storm
As the fight against COVID-19 continues, economies are beginning to reopen. Are we about to experience a typhoon of activity to mirror the huge slumps of 2020?
6 mins
Review of the week: Cheques and balances
The average American family has received $11,400 of government cheques since the pandemic began. That’s a big windfall for people and a difficult economic puzzle for the US Federal Reserve to decipher.
7 mins
Review of the week: America rising
The US is about to turn on the spending taps once again to combat the effects of the pandemic. This time it coincides with the reopening, so expectations for GDP growth are soaring – taking yields with them.
6 mins
Review of the week: Bond vigilantes
When bond markets move, governments and stock markets take note. A swift rise in yields has rattled equities and focused attention on countries’ swollen debt piles.
7 mins
Review of the week: Sprouts of spring
Flowers, hopes and yields are rising as spring approaches. Still, the UK government is only very cautiously reopening as vaccinations continue apace.
7 mins
Review of the week: Profits are back
Company profits are bouncing back earlier than expected. How quickly will our economies come back to life once vaccinations are finished? And how different will they be?
5 mins
Review of the week: Ghosts of the past
Are we due a re-run of the Roaring Twenties? And if so, what does that mean? A look back at the world’s last post-pandemic recovery and a bit more besides.
8 mins
Easy does it
Economic statistics fell off a cliff in May, but as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, investors were already anticipating a big bounce as economies began to reopen.
3 mins
This too shall pass
Amid an alphabet soup of economic forecasts, chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth looks for the ingredients of a lasting recovery.
3 mins
March madness
Markets are jig-jagging like a frightened hare as wholesale lockdowns and extraordinary stimulus have streaked across the globe. Our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth reports on the month.
6 mins
Expect the unexpected
As Covid-19 rattles markets and investors scramble for safety,. our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth considers the longer-term implications for the global economy and also looks at the narrowing Democratic primary race to take on Donald Trump.
4 mins
The journey begins
After many debates, votes and faff, the UK is just about ready to start leaving the EU. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth takes a look at the year ahead and the one just gone.
4 mins
Snakes and Ladders
Another deadline, another delay to Brexit – and now another election on top. Meanwhile, the tennis match between China and the US over trade continues, notes our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
5 mins
Blinkers are for horses
Investors are galloping from one extreme to the other in all sorts of markets. But nothing is black and white, warns chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth, so investors should try to focus on the longer term effects and ignore short-term craziness.
5 mins
A last gasp
At his penultimate meeting, outgoing President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi announced a series of measures to ease monetary policy in the listless region. The bank cut deposit rates by 10 basis points to -0.50% and will restart quantitative easing (QE) on 1 November. At just €20 billion (£17.7bn) per month it’s peanuts compared to historic QE – since 2015 the ECB’s bond purchases have totalled €2.65 trillion – but crucially the new programme has no set end date. Until inflation gets back to 2% and stays there, QE and zero rates are here to stay.
4 mins
The weight of a pound
A ghoulish Brexit is weighing on sterling and Donald Trump trade war with China is weighing on the Federal Reserve. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth looks at the effects of both.
7 mins
It doesn’t add up
Stocks soared to new highs in June, but more pessimistic bond markets tolled a more ominous note amid weaker growth, falling earnings, trade tussles and other troubles. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth considers the mixed messages coming from stocks and bonds.
4 mins
New EU inmates take over the asylum
The world seemed to unravel further last month, with British voters electing members to the EU Parliament whose goal is to leave it, and Donald Trump continuing to wield his trade cudgel. Our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth considers the implications.
5 mins
Mixed signals
Equity markets are in a happy mood, climbing through a fog of uncertainty with omens of recession tolling from the bond market. Julian Chillingworth, Rathbones chief investment officer, explains why we think it still makes sense to stay invested, but with vigilance.
3 mins