News and events
Our economic and market reviews are delivered from Rathbones chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth. He brings highlights, on the investment forecast and the outlook for global and UK markets.
“I am a tariff man.”
US Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell all but dressed up in a Santa suit when he spoke at the New York Economic Club last week.
Investors took a second referendum on the UK’s Brexit deal last week: the result was a resounding no.
Equities took another battering last week, with oil and technology stocks hit hardest.
We are making some important changes with respect to those of our funds that have dual (offer and bid) prices; namely a switch to ‘swinging’ single pricing.
Markets were dominated by US politics last week, with investors first holding their breath and then pondering how America will fare with a split Congress.
October was a brutal month for investors, with a simultaneous rise in bond yields and sharp correction in equity markets. In English, this means the value of both bonds and stocks headed the same way: down.
Life is in the living, not the grave; joy is in hope, not receipt. Nothing is ever as fulfilling as we can imagine. And so it is with the stock markets that, at bottom, are a barometer of people’s moods.
A broad range of US companies reined in estimates of 2019 growth last week, most notably Amazon. Last week, we noted that any corporate concerns about next month’s profit and revenue growth would weigh heavily on stock markets and we were correct.
For answers about the global stock market dip of the past couple of weeks, we think you need to look at the bond market. That, mixed with some jumpy robots, is most likely the cause, we believe.
Rathbones today releases its “Brexit Decision Tree”. Rathbones’ head of asset allocation research, Ed Smith, believes that stopping at “we don’t know” is actually a missed opportunity. The decision tree shows a number of branches which lead to a range of possible outcomes.
“This week will be dominated by three major central bank meetings, and investors asking if the US Federal Reserve will hike rates, if the ECB will end QE and if there will be any action at all from the Bank of Japan?
“As of late January, the MSCI World Index, hadn’t suffered a daily setback greater than 1.5% since September 2016 – a run unprecedented since 2006. After a tumultuous February and March, much of that complacency has been washed away.
“We think it’s prudent to discuss the possible escalation of a global trade war and any impact it might have on our portfolio. Recent volatile market movements highlighted just how sensitive the market has become to protectionist rhetoric, certainly in the short term.
When Donald Trump won the presidency in November 2016, we believed he would struggle to make headway on virtually all of his flagship policies.
Last week the UN World Happiness Report 2018 revealed that Finland is the world’s happiest nation. In contrast, the US slipped five places to 18th in the global ‘happiness’ rankings.
“Chancellor Phillip Hammond was very clear when he reformed the system, the Spring Statement will not be ‘a major fiscal event’ – no other western economy announces tax and spending changes twice a year and the UK needed to stop too.
Last Friday was a momentous day. Not only did it feel like Spring may finally be in the air, but it also marked the nine-year anniversary of the start of the current bull market.
Weathering the markets last week wasn’t too dissimilar to weathering the roads: challenging, and not necessarily good for morale. Markets closed down on Friday; the FTSE 100 had fallen -2.3% during the week and the S&P 500 -0.6%. February closed to the downside across major markets.
In Iceland, there’s an old saying: if you don't like the weather, wait 15 minutes. Since the start of this year, the markets have proven just as changeable as the fickle Icelandic climate. Earlier this month, the VIX index of volatility – Wall Street’s “fear gauge” – briefly hit the h