Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: A Christmas like no other
While we were all cooped up inside, everything was happening out there. Breakthroughs on Brexit and COVID-19 collided with political strife and big moves in bond yields.
7 mins
Review of the week: Playing fair by trade
Brexit was always going to be hard. The tortuous negotiation of a trade deal highlights the difficult compromise at its heart: the freedom of sovereignty or the prosperity that comes with smooth trade.
7 mins
Review of the week: Making sense of the numbers
Stock markets shot the lights out in November as news of promising vaccines hit the wires. The realities of distribution have lessened the glow a bit recently, leading investors to start reassessing their approach.
7 mins
Review of the week: Thanksgiving may be a super-spreader; will vaccine news bring holiday cheer?
Thanksgiving may be a super-spreader event this year, as governments around the world try to plan their way through the upcoming festive season. But investors have been given a boost from good vaccine news.
5 mins
Review of the week: The race to roll out a vaccine is on as markets soar
News of a potentially viable vaccine is welcome, yet markets have rocketed back extremely quickly considering it is yet to be approved. With COVID-19 spreading rapidly once again, time is of the essence.
7 mins
Review of the week: Telling stories
When it comes to grabbing headlines and stealing attention, reality is at a disadvantage to imagination. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, ponders what it means for politics and investments.
8 mins
Review of the week: Here we go again
England will soon plunge back into lockdown. It shouldn’t be as economically painful as the first time around, says chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth. But it won’t be good.
8 mins
Review of the week: The spooky season
Halloween is stuffed full of potential frights this year and a bit light on the fun. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth tiptoes around Brexit, US elections and earnings season.
6 mins
Review of the week: Sliced and diced
We all try to structure our financial affairs as efficiently as possible, so we have more money to do what we want with our lives. Yet sometimes our financial affairs start to affect the structure of our lives and our communities, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
8 mins
Review of the week: Predicting the unpredictable
Biden has taken the edge in the polls but previous experience begs the question: do polls really matter? Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, mulls the possible outcomes of the US election and the effectiveness of the UK government’s spending packages.
6 mins
Review of the week: Computer says no
The government started the fourth quarter with the political equivalent of a kitchen-sinking. Best to focus your attention elsewhere, argues chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth, like better-than expected economic data and the potential for monetary stimulus.
5 mins
Review of the week: Time flies
There’s so much going on that it can seem like nothing in isolation makes any difference. That’s not true, argues chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth. Every decision matters.
6 mins
Recovery rolls on, belying rocky times
Earnings are booming in the West as the recovery rolls on despite investor nervousness.
4 mins
Full of surprises
Recent inflation headlines have made for uncomfortable reading, and volatility picked up as investors remained sceptical of policymakers’ messaging. But we don’t think rising inflation is here to stay as there are too many other phenomena that will push it down.
4 mins
America blooms
America is opening up along with the spring blossoms, and a strong summer of spending seems to be on the way. The rebound in fortunes has helped the S&P 500 reach new highs which, as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, go hand in hand with rising yields.
4 mins
Springing yields
Bond yields and a new season’s flowers both sprung up last month, heralding an end to the dark days of lockdown winter. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth ponders the big question on investors’ minds – does this also foreshadow a prolonged period of higher inflation?
3 mins
A bleary-eyed awakening
After a busy start to the year there’s still a lot of uncertainty swirling around in markets. But economies tend to bounce back hard after sombre periods, and hope remains that our eventual return to ‘normal’ will be no different.
3 mins
Optimistic realism in a vaccinated recovery
A roller-coaster of a year finished on a high note for the markets, and we start 2021 with a sense of relief that one of the most difficult years many of us have ever experienced is behind us.
4 mins
Staying balanced
With a clutch of vaccines on the way soon, equity markets were in a buoyant mood in November. But there are still a lot of things we don’t know – and even some things we don’t know that we don’t know…
3 mins
America (finally) decides
Equities fell in October as investors came to terms with tighter lockdown restrictions, but hopes for a new round of US stimulus under President-elect Joe Biden have buoyed markets, and Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth reckons we should take heart.
3 mins
Post holiday blues
With summer fading into memory, a long uncertain winter of social distancing lies ahead. It’s easy to feel gloomy, but as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth argues, we should try not to buy into the doom.
4 mins
A patchy summer
As summer winds down and the pandemic persists, governments are finding it hard to taper their support measures.
4 mins
Managing expectations
The hard data is coming in and so far companies have fared better through the pandemic than expected. Just how long complete recovery will take no one knows, but as chief economist Julian Chillingworth notes, we maintain our long-held belief in the human capacity to co-operate and solve problems.
3 mins
Are the bears in hibernation, or just napping?
With the groundwork laid for a rapid recovery, equity markets reflected continued optimism in June. But as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, significant risks remain.
3 mins