Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: Will interest rates plateau after peaking?
Will the big central banks making significant interest rate announcements this week follow the ECB’s lead and signal that rates have now peaked? And where might rates settle longer term?
Read time: 6 mins
Review of the week: The good oil
Like virtually everything else, the cost of energy is much higher than it used to be. Combined with higher interest rates, it should keep squeezing economic growth in the coming months.
Read time: 8 mins
Review of the week: Not the August planned
Hopes for a quiet summer were dashed by difficult-to-read economic data, swinging bond yields and holiday dramas.
Read time: 5 mins
Review of the week: Soft landing?
Rather than a slow fade, the American economy produced a surprise surge. Yet with inflation within touching distance of the 2% target, US interest rates may still peak soon.
Read time: 10 mins
Review of the week: Higher or Lower
Interest rate hikes for the US and Europe are almost certain this week. All major central banks are getting close to calling time on rate increases, but the UK is likely to be the last to do so.
Read time: 9 mins
Review of the week: Running hot and cold
Inflation is falling nicely in the US, will British CPI follow suit this week? Meanwhile, China battles deflation as its economy stutters.
Read time: 7 mins
Review of the week: Interesting times for bonds
Normally staid bond markets seem highly strung lately, but there are reasons to hope for some loosening up
Read time: 5 mins
Review of the week: No rain, no rain
Economic data has been confusing for a while. Thankfully, there’s a central bank hiatus just big enough to slip Wimbledon into.
Read time: 5 mins
Review of the week: An independent scapegoat?
The Bank of England is throwing the kitchen sink at runaway inflation. Will it be enough, and are there some things that are outside its control?
Read time: 8 mins
Review of the week: Take the long view on rates
UK inflation may shock gilt markets this week. But if so it’s likely to be a passing phase as price rises continue to cool over the summer.
Read time: 4 mins
Review of the week: Skip, hop and jump?
All eyes are on the direction of central bank monetary policy. After expecting a policy pivot, investors now think the most likely outcome is a skip in tightening followed by a hop to pause mode before a jump to interest rate cuts.
Read time: 5 mins
Review of the week: The great retirement
The UK labour market is in a huge state of flux. The population is ageing fast, people are retiring earlier and changes to immigration are leading to a lack of ‘unskilled’ workers.
Read time: 7 mins
America blooms
America is opening up along with the spring blossoms, and a strong summer of spending seems to be on the way. The rebound in fortunes has helped the S&P 500 reach new highs which, as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, go hand in hand with rising yields.
Springing yields
Bond yields and a new season’s flowers both sprung up last month, heralding an end to the dark days of lockdown winter. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth ponders the big question on investors’ minds – does this also foreshadow a prolonged period of higher inflation?
America (finally) decides
Equities fell in October as investors came to terms with tighter lockdown restrictions, but hopes for a new round of US stimulus under President-elect Joe Biden have buoyed markets, and Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth reckons we should take heart.
Managing expectations
The hard data is coming in and so far companies have fared better through the pandemic than expected. Just how long complete recovery will take no one knows, but as chief economist Julian Chillingworth notes, we maintain our long-held belief in the human capacity to co-operate and solve problems.
