Economic and market insight
Investors grapple with change as inflation rides higher and economic growth bounces back. Central bankers must come to terms with the new environment as well or risk making bad decisions.
Bondholders sell government debt aggressively as inflation concerns mount, but are investors overpaying for inflation protection?
Arguably the greatest welfare programme in UK history has come to an end. That should bring clarity to labour markets and free up workers for more resilient businesses.
Higher inflation is starting to leak into central bankers’ plans for interest rate hikes and ‘tapering’ of QE. Meanwhile, the UK suffers an energy crisis as the COP26 climate summit approaches.
The children have returned to classes and the adults seem to be drifting back to the office. The pandemic still looms large though, affecting travel, spending and taxes.
Labour markets are struggling to get to grips with new post-pandemic supply and demand dynamics. Meanwhile, tighter scrutiny is increasing tech companies’ costs of doing business.
China reminds everyone that communists like to meddle in markets. Meanwhile earnings are booming in the West as the recovery rolls on despite investor nervousness.
Virgin Galactic pushes the frontiers of tourism yet higher with a successful passenger shuttle flight into the mesosphere. Miles below, COVID-19 continues to spread.
Earnings are booming in the West as the recovery rolls on despite investor nervousness.
Recent inflation headlines have made for uncomfortable reading, and volatility picked up as investors remained sceptical of policymakers’ messaging. But we don’t think rising inflation is here to stay as there are too many other phenomena that will push it down.
America is opening up along with the spring blossoms, and a strong summer of spending seems to be on the way. The rebound in fortunes has helped the S&P 500 reach new highs which, as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, go hand in hand with rising yields.
Bond yields and a new season’s flowers both sprung up last month, heralding an end to the dark days of lockdown winter. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth ponders the big question on investors’ minds – does this also foreshadow a prolonged period of higher inflation?
After a busy start to the year there’s still a lot of uncertainty swirling around in markets. But economies tend to bounce back hard after sombre periods, and hope remains that our eventual return to ‘normal’ will be no different.
A roller-coaster of a year finished on a high note for the markets, and we start 2021 with a sense of relief that one of the most difficult years many of us have ever experienced is behind us.
With a clutch of vaccines on the way soon, equity markets were in a buoyant mood in November. But there are still a lot of things we don’t know – and even some things we don’t know that we don’t know…
Equities fell in October as investors came to terms with tighter lockdown restrictions, but hopes for a new round of US stimulus under President-elect Joe Biden have buoyed markets, and Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth reckons we should take heart.
With summer fading into memory, a long uncertain winter of social distancing lies ahead. It’s easy to feel gloomy, but as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth argues, we should try not to buy into the doom.
As summer winds down and the pandemic persists, governments are finding it hard to taper their support measures.
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