Economic and market insight
US markets make new records just in time for Independence Day. While Americans take a day off, it seems a good time to take a look at a tough corner of the UK labour market.
Stock markets have regained their positive momentum, but don’t expect a balmy and tranquil summer ahead.
The US central bank’s nod to the surging American recovery frightened markets last week. These wobbly moments could become a longer-term fixture of the global recovery.
Jobs are the key to true recovery and the best clue to the path of longer-term inflation. Meanwhile, the great vaccination rolls on.
After an austere run for many years, the mood music for global companies seems to have stepped up a beat. Businesses are splashing the cash and investing for a new future.
Breaking the inertia of old habits can be revitalising. Brits are up for a change and that could spark a regional economic revival.
Inflation concerns aren’t receding despite policymakers’ best efforts. Expect more inflation scares to trigger further stock and bond market volatility.
Inflation is all investors can think about right now, causing stock markets to wobble a bit. More focus should be on the steady march to recovery. There’s fun to be had.
Recent inflation headlines have made for uncomfortable reading, and volatility picked up as investors remained sceptical of policymakers’ messaging. But we don’t think rising inflation is here to stay as there are too many other phenomena that will push it down.
America is opening up along with the spring blossoms, and a strong summer of spending seems to be on the way. The rebound in fortunes has helped the S&P 500 reach new highs which, as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, go hand in hand with rising yields.
Bond yields and a new season’s flowers both sprung up last month, heralding an end to the dark days of lockdown winter. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth ponders the big question on investors’ minds – does this also foreshadow a prolonged period of higher inflation?
After a busy start to the year there’s still a lot of uncertainty swirling around in markets. But economies tend to bounce back hard after sombre periods, and hope remains that our eventual return to ‘normal’ will be no different.
A roller-coaster of a year finished on a high note for the markets, and we start 2021 with a sense of relief that one of the most difficult years many of us have ever experienced is behind us.
With a clutch of vaccines on the way soon, equity markets were in a buoyant mood in November. But there are still a lot of things we don’t know – and even some things we don’t know that we don’t know…
Equities fell in October as investors came to terms with tighter lockdown restrictions, but hopes for a new round of US stimulus under President-elect Joe Biden have buoyed markets, and Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth reckons we should take heart.
With summer fading into memory, a long uncertain winter of social distancing lies ahead. It’s easy to feel gloomy, but as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth argues, we should try not to buy into the doom.
As summer winds down and the pandemic persists, governments are finding it hard to taper their support measures.
The hard data is coming in and so far companies have fared better through the pandemic than expected. Just how long complete recovery will take no one knows, but as chief economist Julian Chillingworth notes, we maintain our long-held belief in the human capacity to co-operate and solve problems.
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