The 1970s suddenly seem relevant again given soaring oil prices, high inflation and rising interest rates. But we’re not expecting a rerun of 1970s-style spiralling prices, sputtering economic growth and weak equity market returns.
This year has been grim so far, yet equities recovered much of their losses last week. Meanwhile, oil prices are all over the place and COVID-19 is wreaking havoc in the East.
Commodity markets are fuelling further inflation and putting global growth at risk. Central banks have shown they want to unwind years of emergency monetary policy regardless, sending bond yields higher.
The war in Ukraine has united typically quarrelsome European states against Russian aggression. Meanwhile, unity in President Vladimir Putin’s nation has been enforced through the strength of an authoritarian regime.
Russia’s invasion at first wrong-footed both Ukraine and the West, but the defenders’ resolve has been tougher than expected. Now, financial sanctions are hitting Russians hard.
UK retail sales bounced back after a COVID-crushed Christmas. Yet the longest income squeeze since Sir Robert Peel was Prime Minister is set to intensify in the coming months.
Talks to ward off conflict over Ukraine are failing and a Russian invasion is reportedly imminent. Is it brinkmanship or a real risk?
The Bank of England seems poised to raise interest rates aggressively to combat inflation, yet its explanations don’t square with its own forecasts and analysis. Expect fewer hikes than the market currently implies.
The years of loose money are coming to an end. That will cause some short-term upheaval in markets, but if economies remain strong stocks should soon bounce back.