It was the worst six months in 50 years for US stocks, yet the market is still comfortably higher than before the pandemic struck. Risks have risen, but there’s also room for optimism.
A solid drop in bond yields helped boost stocks and reminds us of the earlier days of ultra-modern monetary policy. Meanwhile, gas prices see-saw on the Atlantic fulcrum.
With inflation running hot, central bankers are gearing up to hike interest rates fast. But this is worrying investors who think the economy may not be able to take it.
The price level is yet to find a ceiling, so the value of stocks and bonds have no floor. Markets will swing between hope and despair until inflation is inarguably falling.
Financial markets remain volatile as they try to gauge whether the healthy jobs market could stoke too-high inflation. Meanwhile, tensions between Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his party are escalating sharply.
Ever been so happy it makes you sad? Ever been so distraught it makes you smile? Humanity is complicated, which makes markets tough to read as well.
Stocks are flirting with levels that delineate a depressed market. The mood is gloomy and the risk of recession is real, but are investors pricing in too much bad news?
Central bankers have spent years focussing their efforts on fighting deflation. Now that long-dormant inflation is back, they have to stop it from bedding in while avoiding sending the economy into recession.