A worrying new strain of COVID-19 has upended confidence in economic recovery, the path of interest rates and potentially the arrival of Father Christmas.

It’s shaping up to be another winter tarnished by the virus. As if central bankers needed more complexity on top of huge government spending, upended supply chains and confused labour markets.

The outcome of COP26 has left many people feeling blue about our fight to stop global warming. But that disappointment actually shows how much has changed in a few short years.

At the peak of worries about higher interest rates, central bankers have reiterated their laissez-faire stance to policy. That sent prices of stocks and bonds bouncing higher.

The eyes of the world are watching COP26 for bold action on climate change. Meanwhile, the UK chancellor envisages a ‘new age of optimism’.

Despite some unanticipated giveaways, fiscal policy is tightening dramatically. Political confusion and economic uncertainty further cloud the outlook.

Official statistics are in flux as UK policymakers ponder their plans for the future. Meanwhile, third-quarter US company reporting is off to a great start.

Investors grapple with change as inflation rides higher and economic growth bounces back. Central bankers must come to terms with the new environment as well or risk making bad decisions.

Bondholders sell government debt aggressively as inflation concerns mount, but are investors overpaying for inflation protection?

Arguably the greatest welfare programme in UK history has come to an end. That should bring clarity to labour markets and free up workers for more resilient businesses.

The recovery has come off the boil, but we think it will continue supporting the markets.

Higher inflation is starting to leak into central bankers’ plans for interest rate hikes and ‘tapering’ of QE. Meanwhile, the UK suffers an energy crisis as the COP26 climate summit approaches.