UK inflation may shock gilt markets this week. But if so it’s likely to be a passing phase as price rises continue to cool over the summer.

All eyes are on the direction of central bank monetary policy. After expecting a policy pivot, investors now think the most likely outcome is a skip in tightening followed by a hop to pause mode before a jump to interest rate cuts.

The UK labour market is in a huge state of flux. The population is ageing fast, people are retiring earlier and changes to immigration are leading to a lack of ‘unskilled’ workers.

UK inflation simply won’t drop as fast as everyone hopes, leading the Bank of England to admit it needs a new model. Meanwhile, a compromise is proposed to kick the can on the US debt ceiling till after the next election.

Inflation can often seem an abstract concept. Not lately, though: everyone is keenly aware of soaring prices. Is inflation finally starting to drop?

There’s a disconnect between how everyone feels and how stock markets are moving. Meanwhile, the US debt ceiling looms ever larger.

A King is crowned and most of England went to the polls last week. Coming up is a Bank of England rate hike and an update for American inflation.

A regional bank caught up in the March banking crisis has been forcibly sold by an American regulator. Hopefully this marks the end of the chapter.

Investors are fearful of an earnings recession as reporting season steams ahead. Meanwhile, China’s first-quarter GDP estimate suggests its recovery is proving uneven.

Markets are riven over weighty questions about the economic strength of our households and businesses clashing with higher living costs, and all the while lurks the menace of unknown consequences created by a rapidly changed world.

Money was easy to come by in the 2010s, for businesses, households and governments. With interest rates now much higher, hard decisions loom.

Stocks and bonds ended the month – and first quarter –nearing the top ends of the trading ranges in place since late last year. But there’s still much uncertainty about the inflation and growth outlook, particularly if energy prices start rising again.