Hosted by journalist and broadcaster Andrea Catherwood, the Rathbones Look forward series brings you closer to some of the world’s leading political, cultural and philosophical thinkers. Our guests discuss topics on the world of tomorrow, ranging from the future of democracy to the importance of the pursuit of truth in this era of fake news.
Now that the latest round of China/US trade talks have come to an uninspiring end, attention will shift to this evening’s announcement from the US Federal Reserve and the expected 0.25% rate reduction in the real interest rate. Markets will also be searching for clues as to whether there will be any further rate cuts this year, or whether this is a one off insurance cut.
Fast isn’t always good. The rise of ‘fast fashion’ may have brought short-term happiness to some, but its long-term impacts are potentially devastating.
As the US central bank prepares to make its first interest rate reduction since 2008, many investors see the move as the end of an era. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, thinks the impending death of the economic cycle may be greatly exaggerated.
We have more reasons than at any time over the past decade to be worried about the global economic outlook over the next 12 months. Notably, US industrial production is contracting quarter- on-quarter. But we don’t think it’s time yet to cash in your chips. A mild contraction in many of these indicators is not actually unusual. Quarterly US industrial production growth has been negative five times now since the recovery began in 2009, sometimes for prolonged periods. Taken together, the indicators are not yet signalling more than a typical mid-cycle slowdown.
Meet the new boss; same challenges as the old boss
Iran and the UK clash in the Gulf, squeezing the supply of oil worldwide. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes that fading global growth should keep the crude price from spiking.