The fog of uncertainty won’t disperse anytime soon. But the FTSE is an international market, defensive and quite possibly one of the better places to be as global growth slows.
The India growth story is now well-established, but on the eve of the largest general election in the world, should it still be regarded as the jewel in the emerging market crown?
The Conservative Party has politicked itself into a terrible bind, explains Julian Chillingworth, our chief investment officer. The consequences for the country could be momentous
Large loan-loss provisions hamper Europe’s banks. These provisions cover things like bad loans and customer defaults and cost the sector a lot. The problem is particularly acute in Portugal and Italy but still prevalent in all the major European economies. The region needs recovery in its banking sector before the long-awaited upswing in its indices can begin. Until Europe’s banks free themselves from bad debt, the region will remain stuck in economic mud.
As the UK works through a significant moment in history, policies that boost trade and investment could relieve the country’s economic malaise.
Global equities shrugged off some bad news to post remarkable gains in the first quarter. Julian Chillingworth, our chief investment officer, thinks it’s time to shuffle toward the exit – but not too fast.
As the joke goes, an inverted yield curve has predicted 11 of the past nine recessions. Its traditionally one of the most reliable harbingers of economic recession but a closer look at timings show that its use is limited. Over the past 50 years, the number of months from inversion (defined here as 1-year US Treasury yields surpassing 10-year yields) to recession has ranged from seven up to 24, averaging 14. So, an inverted yield curve has proved to be a reliable indication of recession, but not its timing.