Global markets have been focusing on US rate cuts over the past few months. But investors are increasingly looking to governments to stimulate growth, with a record 57% of fund managers saying fiscal policy is too restrictive, according to a recent survey of fund managers by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
The UK’s first December general election in nearly 100 years punctuated an eventful year for politics and the economy. Financial markets experienced a series of mood swings throughout 2019, but ended on a high as investors regained their appetite for risk. Despite ongoing uncertainty, including Brexit and trade tensions between the US and China, we remain positive about the outlook for 2020.
The yield curve has traditionally been a bond nerd’s playground. It has always struggled to go mainstream. But lately there’s been a lot of talk in the newspapers and on the radio about ‘the yield curve’ and how its ‘inversion’ is tolling our doom.
Trade wars continue to cloud the outlook for businesses and consumers. Closer to home, Brexit uncertainty has gone from bad to worse. Our new Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s first few weeks in office have been pretty spectacular.
Please Mr Trump, don't mention the war.
The global economy is sinking into a slowdown, but is this the beginning of the end? It’s too early to tell.
The spectre of higher inflation and rising interest rates sent a shudder through global markets in February. It could still cause some sleepless nights over the rest of the year, but we don’t see anything too alarming on the horizon.
The threat of higher inflation and rising interest rates spooked global stock markets in February and pushed up government bond yields. We expect the trend of rising yields to persist and be a dominant investment theme over the coming year, with implications for equities.