Knowledge and Insight - Global economy

Austerity is the latest victim as the largest giveaway since 1992 is unleashed.

As economic fears spread along with the widening global outbreak of coronavirus, our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth considers the implications for investors. He also ponders whether the economy will continue to be a ‘Trump’ card for the US President as November elections approach.

Government budget balances are misunderstood. By politicians — sometimes wilfully — and even by some economists. So it’s no wonder then, if they’re misunderstood by the public.

Will the pull of the heart prevail against the mind in Brexit negotiations? Will a nasty outbreak of flu be the start of a beautiful friendship between Trump and Xi? Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth is dubious.

Global markets have been focusing on US rate cuts over the past few months. But investors are increasingly looking to governments to stimulate growth, with a record 57% of fund managers saying fiscal policy is too restrictive, according to a recent survey of fund managers by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Stock markets went bananas last year as China and the US appeared to finally agree on trade. But then the killing of a top Iranian general set off geopolitical fireworks. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth mulls the consequences.

The UK’s first December general election in nearly 100 years punctuated an eventful year for politics and the economy. Financial markets experienced a series of mood swings throughout 2019, but ended on a high as investors regained their appetite for risk. Despite ongoing uncertainty, including Brexit and trade tensions between the US and China, we remain positive about the outlook for 2020.

Boris Johnson has won a strong mandate to get on with his Brexit deal, sending sterling shooting higher. But there’s something unusual going on with UK stocks, notes chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.

Please Mr Trump, don't mention the war.
The global economy is sinking into a slowdown, but is this the beginning of the end? It’s too early to tell.