Knowledge and Insight - Global economy

The US economy is rocketing towards recovery, with jobs, confidence and output soaring amid a strong vaccination drive and stimulus. Next on the list, investment in clean energy.

The strands of trade connecting markets are as important to our living standards as they are fragile. A stranded ship in the Suez highlights both points at once.

The average American family has received $11,400 of government cheques since the pandemic began. That’s a big windfall for people and a difficult economic puzzle for the US Federal Reserve to decipher.

The US is about to turn on the spending taps once again to combat the effects of the pandemic. This time it coincides with the reopening, so expectations for GDP growth are soaring – taking yields with them.

When bond markets move, governments and stock markets take note. A swift rise in yields has rattled equities and focused attention on countries’ swollen debt piles.

Company profits are bouncing back earlier than expected. How quickly will our economies come back to life once vaccinations are finished? And how different will they be?

Are we due a re-run of the Roaring Twenties? And if so, what does that mean? A look back at the world’s last post-pandemic recovery and a bit more besides.

Financial markets have been on a rollercoaster over the past year. There was a sharp drop in March as countries locked down and then a swift upswing followed, led by technology shares. Even unloved companies, particularly banks and energy firms, have rebounded lately, thanks to good news about vaccines.

We close a difficult year with a sense of relief, and the tools to deal with the challenges ahead.