Knowledge and Insight - Economy

A plunge in oil prices has sent markets reeling, but the epidemic is still the main concern.

Trade wars continue to cloud the outlook for businesses and consumers. Closer to home, Brexit uncertainty has gone from bad to worse. Our new Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s first few weeks in office have been pretty spectacular.

Owing to its size and influence around the world, what happens in the US economy has important implications for financial markets everywhere. 

The yield curve is all the rage in the financial press, with more people searching for it on Google than at any time since 2005, which was the last time it inverted. But what is the yield curve? What does it mean for it to invert? And why should we care?

A decision tree for navigating Brexit uncertainty

Unchecked decisions at high levels were at the heart of the global financial crisis. Today, a decade later, there is a far sharper focus on how organisations are governed, with institutional investors expected to take a much more robust stance in calling to account the companies whose shares they own. As a leading asset manager, Rathbones takes its stewardship responsibilities seriously.

UK stocks have underperformed other major developed markets so far in 2018, extending a pattern that has been in place since the June 2016 vote to leave the EU. A longer-term analysis also suggests Brexit isn’t the only thing weighing on UK companies, so why should investors be interested in UK equities now? We think investors are pricing in a fairly negative Brexit scenario, and see UK shares as offering fundamental value and opportunity in differing economic outlooks. 

The spectre of higher inflation and rising interest rates sent a shudder through global markets in February. It could still cause some sleepless nights over the rest of the year, but we don’t see anything too alarming on the horizon.

In a post-Brexit world, Britain may have to become less reliant on its financial services sector and the South East.