Economic and market insight
Review of the week
Review of the week: Poof, like magic
Banks are very powerful, but very fragile. That’s because they are dependent on people and their ability to believe.
9 mins
Review of the week: Move fast and break
When banks fail they do so suddenly and the shock can create panic that spreads trouble to other lenders. That’s why US regulators have stepped in swiftly and unambiguously.
9 mins
Review of the week: The bank of mum and dad
UK central bankers fall into an age-old parenting trap while talking to investors. Also, we look at the differences between official statistics and new ‘real-time’ series.
9 mins
Review of the week: A way forward?
A new deal for the Northern Irish border is imminent, bringing hope of greater clarity on Brexit for the UK. Meanwhile, the outlook for global inflation only gets foggier.
8 mins
Review of the week: One year on
The war in Ukraine has caused misery in Eastern Europe, upended global trade and sharpened world politics. An era of cheap hydrocarbons is now behind us, and further energy shocks could be on the horizon.
7 mins
Review of the week: The uncertainty principle
After years of upheaval, huge stimulus and changing habits from work to play, the paths of economic growth and inflation disappear into a fog as thick as a February morning. That’s why we’re still cautious about 2023.
8 mins
Review of the week: Blowing a gale
Markets were fanned higher by US monetary policy before getting driven backwards by contradictory economic winds. Uncertainty still reigns supreme.
7 mins
Review of the week: Everything, everywhere, all at once
It’s a manic week ahead, full of monetary policy, earnings and economic insights. Just the right time for a week of strikes to cause bedlam throughout the UK, from schools to railways.
7 mins
Review of the week: Bonds vs Fed
Signs of economic weakness in America have bond investors hoping the US central bank will soon let up on its path of higher interest rates. But they might be a little early.
7 mins
Review of the week: New year, new hope
Markets were buoyed by fading American inflation, but they may be getting ahead of themselves. Meanwhile, the UK high street reports some rare good news.
7 mins
Review of the week: An exceptional year
One for the ages, 2022 was a whirlwind year that shook up economies and markets. What’s in store for 2023?
8 mins
Review of the week: 2022 wrapped up
We look back at a grim year for financial markets. The rebound in the last few months seems to offer investors some relief, but can we be confident that the worst is over?
5 mins
Recovery rolls on, belying rocky times
Earnings are booming in the West as the recovery rolls on despite investor nervousness.
4 mins
Full of surprises
Recent inflation headlines have made for uncomfortable reading, and volatility picked up as investors remained sceptical of policymakers’ messaging. But we don’t think rising inflation is here to stay as there are too many other phenomena that will push it down.
4 mins
America blooms
America is opening up along with the spring blossoms, and a strong summer of spending seems to be on the way. The rebound in fortunes has helped the S&P 500 reach new highs which, as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, go hand in hand with rising yields.
4 mins
Springing yields
Bond yields and a new season’s flowers both sprung up last month, heralding an end to the dark days of lockdown winter. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth ponders the big question on investors’ minds – does this also foreshadow a prolonged period of higher inflation?
3 mins
A bleary-eyed awakening
After a busy start to the year there’s still a lot of uncertainty swirling around in markets. But economies tend to bounce back hard after sombre periods, and hope remains that our eventual return to ‘normal’ will be no different.
3 mins
Optimistic realism in a vaccinated recovery
A roller-coaster of a year finished on a high note for the markets, and we start 2021 with a sense of relief that one of the most difficult years many of us have ever experienced is behind us.
4 mins
Staying balanced
With a clutch of vaccines on the way soon, equity markets were in a buoyant mood in November. But there are still a lot of things we don’t know – and even some things we don’t know that we don’t know…
3 mins
America (finally) decides
Equities fell in October as investors came to terms with tighter lockdown restrictions, but hopes for a new round of US stimulus under President-elect Joe Biden have buoyed markets, and Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth reckons we should take heart.
3 mins
Post holiday blues
With summer fading into memory, a long uncertain winter of social distancing lies ahead. It’s easy to feel gloomy, but as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth argues, we should try not to buy into the doom.
4 mins
A patchy summer
As summer winds down and the pandemic persists, governments are finding it hard to taper their support measures.
4 mins
Managing expectations
The hard data is coming in and so far companies have fared better through the pandemic than expected. Just how long complete recovery will take no one knows, but as chief economist Julian Chillingworth notes, we maintain our long-held belief in the human capacity to co-operate and solve problems.
3 mins
Are the bears in hibernation, or just napping?
With the groundwork laid for a rapid recovery, equity markets reflected continued optimism in June. But as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, significant risks remain.
3 mins